There are reports that Elon Musk is considering putting Twitter behind a paywall.
If at any point before the question closes, Twitter begins charging all users (clarification on "all") for a basic thing (be it creating an account, posting, replying, liking, scrolling, etc), then I will resolve this as Yes.
Clarification of the criteria. If there is anything you are unsure about, please ask in the comments, and then I will answer you and add it here.
Things considered basic (if all users have to pay to do one of these things at any time before the close date, the market resolves YES):
ability to scroll through the home timeline for at least 30 minutes a day
following (this is the ability to follow multiple accounts. If Twitter limits the amount of accounts a free user can follow, then that won't count)
liking
posting (the ability to post at least some text, image, and video)
replying
retweeting
quote tweeting
Things NOT considered basic:
unlimited scrolling/data usage
bookmarking
write longer posts
post longer and/or higher-quality video
undo button
communities stuff
lists stuff
spaces stuff
Relevant News
https://twitter.com/DaveLeeBBG/status/1703814998626111785
https://fortune.com/2023/10/17/twitter-x-charging-new-users-1-dollar-year-to-tweet/
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knowing that advertisers fled X after elon's antisemitic post i'd say there is an increase in chance that he paywalls the entire site
@catto A paywall would actually be beneficial to Musk in making Twitter more in line with what he wants. Most people willing to pay for Twitter these days are people who admire him and vice versa.
@DavidBolin I have my suspicions, but it would be rude to state them without stronger evidence. As far as I know, nobody knows the reason to high confidence.
Given the recent developments and statements by Elon Musk, there is a discussion around Twitter potentially moving to a small monthly payment system, mainly to combat bot activity on the platform. However, concrete plans for charging all users by March 2024 have not been confirmed. Musk's commentary indicates that if such a fee were introduced, it might be minimal and is considered necessary for platform health. Still, the implementation and its extent remain speculative at this stage. Based on this, while there is a possibility of some form of user fee, the lack of definitive plans supports your bet against Twitter starting to charge all users to use the platform by the end of March 2024.
During a talk with Musk on Monday, Musk claims that his social networking site X is going to start charging users a small monthly charge. The owner of X claimed that building a paywall around the company will keep out the automated accounts, or bots, that have become to be a source of annoyance for Musk.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/19/elon-musk-twitter-x-subscription-fees-users-posts
@RageIt is unlikely that all users will be charged a fee by the end of March 2024. Musk, the owner of X, said he was considering charging "a small monthly payment" to all users in what he said was an effort to "combat vast armies of bots" proliferating. X will start charging users in the Philippines and New Zealand a $1 fee to use the service. X has begun charging platform fees in some countries but is being tested in phases. Users don’t seem thrilled by the prospect of having to pay to use X. A growing number of X users have also shared posts about considering spending their time on Threads, an app for sharing text updates and joining public conversations launched in July by the team behind Instagram. It is difficult practically to charge all users until the end of March because it would accelerate the decline of users..https://www.npr.org/2023/10/18/1206711620/musks-x-to-charge-users-in-philippines-and-new-zealand-1-to-use-platform
https://euronewsweek.co.uk/tech/will-twitter-start-charging-all-users-a-subscription-fee/
https://twitter.com/Support/status/1714429406192582896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1714429406192582896%7Ctwgr%5Eb00349474b5c20aa2b8091b5f10cf3e21a4c3896%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2023%2F10%2F27%2Felon-musk-twitter-everything-you-need-to-know%2F
@HowAboutWeAllChillOutABit Good question. If the exceptions were made on a case-by-case basis—like how Elon started making the checkmark free for random celebrities he liked at one point—then it would resolve YES, as such exceptions would prove the rule (whatever that means). Even if the exception was made for a category like elected officials, I would resolve this as YES.
But it would resolve NO if the exception was made for something applicable to the broader user base. For example, exceptions for accounts created before a certain date or for accounts with over X thousand followers (if the exception was made for accounts with over 1 million followers, then I could still resolve as YES, but anything less than that and it would resolve as NO).
@KnowNothing I feel like you're making up new market criteria that's definitely not part of the original criteria. As much as you may not like it, making it free for people with >1m followers is clearly not charging all users. It's not fair to traders who traded before this to change the resolution criteria like that.
@Shelvacu I understand what you’re saying, and I regret not making things more clear from the get-go. This was the first market I made on Manifold, and I clearly should have put more thought into it before clicking submit.
But I don’t think I’m actually changing the market criteria here, but rather am applying the spirit of the initial market to particular edge cases. Like if Elon Musk made Twitter pay-to-use for everyone other than himself and Eliezer Yudkowsky, then it wouldn’t technically be pay-to-play for all users, but the spirit of the original market would have clearly been met. The 1 million follower threshold is less obvious, but I’d put it into that same category.
Elon Musk is considering making X, formerly known as Twitter, a subscription-based platform to combat the proliferation of bot accounts. During a discussion on AI with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Musk mentioned the possibility of a small monthly fee for X's use, without specifying the exact cost. Musk aims to deter bot creation with this approach. X currently has 550 million monthly users who share 100-200 million daily posts. Musk has previously contemplated putting X behind a paywall due to a 50% drop in ad revenue since he acquired the company. X's subscription program, now called X Blue, starts at $8 per month and includes benefits like verified check-mark status.
This link gives more insights https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/elon-musk-charge-all-x-twitter-users-fee-1235726693/
According to the relevant news shared in this post, latest updates from Twitter/X, the company has has not announced any plans to charge all users a subscription fee and in fact the CEO, Elon Musk, has said that he wants to make Twitter more accessible. Twitter/X generates most of its revenue from advertising and the fact of users for a subscription fee could alienate advertisers and users alike.
However, Twitter/X has already started charging some users a fee for premium features.
https://twitter.com/DaveLeeBBG/status/1703814998626111785
https://fortune.com/2023/10/17/twitter-x-charging-new-users-1-dollar-year-to-tweet/
@Mikelon797 Correct. Twitter's new paywall would not be sufficient for this market to resolve as YES even if it was being applied to all users (rather than just new users) because it is only being rolled out in New Zealand and the Philippines (for now).
@KnowNothing A paywall for only new users won't count, right? If all the old crowd can still use Twitter like normal?
@Mira i updated the description to clarify things. let me know if there's anything you think i'm missing.
@dittopoop My guess: people rushing to bet yes on the paywall news before realizing said news was just about a paywall for new users?