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knowing that advertisers fled X after elon's antisemitic post i'd say there is an increase in chance that he paywalls the entire site

@catto A paywall would actually be beneficial to Musk in making Twitter more in line with what he wants. Most people willing to pay for Twitter these days are people who admire him and vice versa.

Why do people post these AI generated comments on these boards?

@DavidBolin I have my suspicions, but it would be rude to state them without stronger evidence. As far as I know, nobody knows the reason to high confidence.

Given the recent developments and statements by Elon Musk, there is a discussion around Twitter potentially moving to a small monthly payment system, mainly to combat bot activity on the platform. However, concrete plans for charging all users by March 2024 have not been confirmed. Musk's commentary indicates that if such a fee were introduced, it might be minimal and is considered necessary for platform health. Still, the implementation and its extent remain speculative at this stage. Based on this, while there is a possibility of some form of user fee, the lack of definitive plans supports your bet against Twitter starting to charge all users to use the platform by the end of March 2024.

During a talk with Musk on Monday, Musk claims that his social networking site X is going to start charging users a small monthly charge. The owner of X claimed that building a paywall around the company will keep out the automated accounts, or bots, that have become to be a source of annoyance for Musk.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/19/elon-musk-twitter-x-subscription-fees-users-posts

Elon Musk says Twitter, now X, could charge all users subscription fees

Billionaire also says platform has 550 million monthly users generating up to 200m posts a day

@RageIt is unlikely that all users will be charged a fee by the end of March 2024. Musk, the owner of X, said he was considering charging "a small monthly payment" to all users in what he said was an effort to "combat vast armies of bots" proliferating. X will start charging users in the Philippines and New Zealand a $1 fee to use the service. X has begun charging platform fees in some countries but is being tested in phases. Users don’t seem thrilled by the prospect of having to pay to use X. A growing number of X users have also shared posts about considering spending their time on Threads, an app for sharing text updates and joining public conversations launched in July by the team behind Instagram. It is difficult practically to charge all users until the end of March because it would accelerate the decline of users..https://www.npr.org/2023/10/18/1206711620/musks-x-to-charge-users-in-philippines-and-new-zealand-1-to-use-platform
https://euronewsweek.co.uk/tech/will-twitter-start-charging-all-users-a-subscription-fee/
https://twitter.com/Support/status/1714429406192582896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1714429406192582896%7Ctwgr%5Eb00349474b5c20aa2b8091b5f10cf3e21a4c3896%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2023%2F10%2F27%2Felon-musk-twitter-everything-you-need-to-know%2F

ending tonight:

https://manifold.markets/KnowNothing/will-twitter-circles-be-disabled-at

Will Twitter Circles be disabled at the end of October 31?

83% chance. Twitter recently announced that the feature will be disabled by October 31. The decision was met with widespread disapproval, which might persuade Elon to reverse course. This market will resolve as 'Yes' if the feature is disabled at 11:59 p.m. EST on October 31, 2023, and 'No' otherwise. Nothing that happens before or after that moment will be relevant. https://twitter.com/Support/status/1704996222619009211

If twitter made an exception for people of interest (politicians, very famous people, Musk himself etc), would this resolve as yes or no?

@HowAboutWeAllChillOutABit Good question. If the exceptions were made on a case-by-case basis—like how Elon started making the checkmark free for random celebrities he liked at one point—then it would resolve YES, as such exceptions would prove the rule (whatever that means). Even if the exception was made for a category like elected officials, I would resolve this as YES.

But it would resolve NO if the exception was made for something applicable to the broader user base. For example, exceptions for accounts created before a certain date or for accounts with over X thousand followers (if the exception was made for accounts with over 1 million followers, then I could still resolve as YES, but anything less than that and it would resolve as NO).

@KnowNothing I feel like you're making up new market criteria that's definitely not part of the original criteria. As much as you may not like it, making it free for people with >1m followers is clearly not charging all users. It's not fair to traders who traded before this to change the resolution criteria like that.

@Shelvacu I understand what you’re saying, and I regret not making things more clear from the get-go. This was the first market I made on Manifold, and I clearly should have put more thought into it before clicking submit.

But I don’t think I’m actually changing the market criteria here, but rather am applying the spirit of the initial market to particular edge cases. Like if Elon Musk made Twitter pay-to-use for everyone other than himself and Eliezer Yudkowsky, then it wouldn’t technically be pay-to-play for all users, but the spirit of the original market would have clearly been met. The 1 million follower threshold is less obvious, but I’d put it into that same category.

It's a stupid idea but that hasn't stopped Elon in the past.

Elon Musk is considering making X, formerly known as Twitter, a subscription-based platform to combat the proliferation of bot accounts. During a discussion on AI with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Musk mentioned the possibility of a small monthly fee for X's use, without specifying the exact cost. Musk aims to deter bot creation with this approach. X currently has 550 million monthly users who share 100-200 million daily posts. Musk has previously contemplated putting X behind a paywall due to a 50% drop in ad revenue since he acquired the company. X's subscription program, now called X Blue, starts at $8 per month and includes benefits like verified check-mark status.

This link gives more insights https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/elon-musk-charge-all-x-twitter-users-fee-1235726693/

Elon Musk Suggests He Will Charge All X/Twitter Users a Fee to Be on the Platform

Elon Musk may flip the switch to make X -- the social network formerly known as Twitter -- an entirely subscription-based platform.

According to the relevant news shared in this post, latest updates from Twitter/X, the company has has not announced any plans to charge all users a subscription fee and in fact the CEO, Elon Musk, has said that he wants to make Twitter more accessible. Twitter/X generates most of its revenue from advertising and the fact of users for a subscription fee could alienate advertisers and users alike.

However, Twitter/X has already started charging some users a fee for premium features.

https://twitter.com/DaveLeeBBG/status/1703814998626111785

https://fortune.com/2023/10/17/twitter-x-charging-new-users-1-dollar-year-to-tweet/

Everyone means every country?

@Mikelon797 Correct. Twitter's new paywall would not be sufficient for this market to resolve as YES even if it was being applied to all users (rather than just new users) because it is only being rolled out in New Zealand and the Philippines (for now).

@KnowNothing A paywall for only new users won't count, right? If all the old crowd can still use Twitter like normal?

@Mira Correct.

@Mira i updated the description to clarify things. let me know if there's anything you think i'm missing.

With recent news, shouldn't this market be trading really high? Why did it spike and suddenly collapse?

@dittopoop My guess: people rushing to bet yes on the paywall news before realizing said news was just about a paywall for new users?

@nottelling2ccc that’s me!

@dittopoop It’s happened twice now. Looks like a few people going ham

@nottelling2ccc Paywall for new users, and only users in New Zealand and the Philippines.