Will Mariupol fall by April?

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resolved Mar 31

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This question resolves to Yes if Russia occupies Mariupol in Ukraine by the deadline.

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bought Ṁ40 of NO

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Mariupol%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2030%2C2022.png

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Getting down to the wire but the Institute for the Study of War's day-by-day updates indicate that there's still active fighting in Mariupol, so not yet 'fallen'.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Update: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/28/europe/mariupol-mayor-ukraine-occupiers-intl/index.html

bought Ṁ15 of YES

I created "Will Mariupol fall by May?" https://manifold.markets/M/will-mariupol-fall-by-may

bought Ṁ60 of YES

We're now talking about which city landmarks Russian troops have control of, feels like they're close https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-29-summary/

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