Will Bolsonaro attempt a coup in Brazil before or on January 1st, 2023?
resolved Jan 2

January 1st is the date of the inauguration for the winner of the 2022 presidential election.

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predicted NO

@Nostradamnedus, will you resolve according to BRT time zone?

predicted YES

I had thought he would, but in the end, the answer looks likely to be no. He's running away to Mar-a-Lago supposedly on 12/28, to stay for a couple months, perhaps to try to avoid indictments that could come when his term expires.

predicted NO

@Nostradamnedus was Jan 6th a coup attempt?

How do you plan to solve this?

predicted YES

@MP Yes it definitely was.

predicted YES

@MP If that kind of situation happens, we'll need to consider it at the time. I would have counted Jan 6th.

@Nostradamnedus I guess we have to weigh both severity and Bolsonaro's role.

If he intices his followers but they only manage to have some riots, it's a no. If somebody storms congress as was Jan 6, but Bolsonaro doesn't do his part (supporting the invaders as Trump did, giving instructions or anything like that or actually taking steps personally), it's a no as well.

For a yes, both criteria have to be met, at least when we compare to Trump.

In other cases I guess that major outlets will call it as such and we shouldn't be hair splitting about it.

predicted YES

And this article:

"Brazilian election: Inside the online groups calling for a military coup

Sky News has been monitoring over 25 channels associated with Brazil's far-right, where calls for military intervention in the Brazilian election and unfounded claims that a coup might already be under way are commonplace."


predicted NO

@belikewater Folha quotes Lula's future chief of staff saying he isn't worried about these quotes. Saying a couple of words outside the official residence and attempting a coup are worlds apart.

predicted YES

@MP I agree, they're worlds apart. But, for instance, compare where Bolsonaro is in his rhetoric, and where his supporters are, with where Trump and his supporters were in early Dec 2020. Trump never even all-out, publicly called for a coup. Like Trump, Bolsonaro has exhausted his options in the courts; now come the behind-the-scenes manipulations and ultimately, encouraging his supporters to help stage a coup. I'd put it at maybe 75/25 that he'll actually attempt a coup at the level that Trump did on Jan 6. It didn't take that many people to storm the Capitol on Jan 6, and if it hadn't been for the bravery and quick thinking of a relatively small number of people, things could have ended very differently that day. There's a committed minority in Brazil who could easily do something analogous. Trump never even went all out, and waffled on an outright coup attempt at the end. Imagine if Bolsonaro doesn't.

predicted NO

@belikewater Unless they do it literally today at Lula's certification, I don't see a moment where they could. In the inauguration day we will be hosting plenty of heads of state, including Vice President Kamala Harris. The monumental axis is prepared to protect the Three Powers Square from this type of thing.

@MP LOL. People are rioting outside Lula's hotel in Brasilia. Just closed my position.

As I said, it had to be today 🤣🤣

predicted YES

@MP So it’s happening or no? Is that the intent of the rioters?

@BTE Hard to say. There are lots things that need to be done. But @Nostradamnedus didn't provide guidance on what would make a coup, so I think I'd rather stay on the sidelines.

Refusing to Accept Defeat, Bolsonaro Backers Call on Military to Intervene

Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in cities across Brazil, many of them demanding that the military stop the transfer of power to President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

predicted NO

@belikewater Do you realize that this piece of data tilts the probabilities AGAINST a coup, right?

predicted YES

@MP Why do you see it this way? I see the current demonstrations as the opening salvo in a series of efforts that will likely become increasingly bolder coup attempts (because everything short of accepting defeat in an election and transferring power peacefully amounts to some form of coup attempt). And if demonstrators are calling for the military to take over and install Bolsonaro as leader, then that would be a coup, too. While Bolsonaro said on Tuesday that he will accede to a peaceful transfer of power, I don't think he will actually give up without a fight.

predicted NO

@belikewater Ok, I misread your post.

Bolsonaro is giving speech calling his followers to stop rioting.


predicted YES

@MP Sure, for now. There's a lot of time between now and when he is supposed to hand over power. Like Trump, he will likely run through a list of ways to try to retain power before then. Unlike Trump, he might actually follow through with a coup attempt via rioters if all else fails.

Bolsonaro attended Minister Alexandre de Moraes as president of the Supreme Electoral Court today, with Lula and other former presidents. Is it a sign of moderation?

@MP No. If he doesn't talk about riged elections on 7th Setember that would be moderation

“Will some people who like Bonsonaro take selfies in their capital by 2023?”

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