https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Voice_to_Parliament
"By this time next year, the Voice to Parliament referendum will have been held, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says": https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/anthony-albanese-flags-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-to-be-held-within-year/6dpprmn05
"To pass a referendum, the bill must ordinarily achieve a double majority: a majority of those voting nationwide, as well as separate majorities in a majority of states (i.e., 4 out of 6 states)": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,865 | |
| 2 | Ṁ767 | |
| 3 | Ṁ264 | |
| 4 | Ṁ216 | |
| 5 | Ṁ139 |
Roy Morgan poll putting it much closer than others.
A bit redundant to say at this point, but in the final, critical month of the campaign, Yes, for all its ads, endorsements, financial resources and boots on the ground, has not even been able to do as much as stem the bleeding in the polls, let alone reverse course. There doesn't seem to be anything that could plausibly cause the referendum to pass, let alone anything the Yes campaign is capable of doing itself.
@CU It's comedic how the Yes campaign let the Nos hijack essentially the entire thing. I have heard essentially nothing besides their "You're the voice" campaign launch. Crazy.
Useful polling tracker https://simonjackman.github.io/poll_averaging_voice_2023/poll_averaging.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-30/voice-to-parliament-referendum-date-set-october-14/102757140
A month and a bit for the Yes campaign to turn things around
@NGK I still have my big order at 11%, stop killing my dream. I have just proven recently that I make very bad decisions. Someone please fill my order
@chrisjbillington I meant "holding fixed everything that's happened up to the present" (unless you're saying a Coalition backflip is the most likely explanation for a hypothetical victory, which is fair enough I suppose)
@CU Yes I am saying that. Next on the list is something like "the polling was wrong and support was high all along".
Very hard to imagine things that could shift the sentiment at the moment.
@chrisjbillington I'm currently a YES holder just because I think the market is too low (I was an early NOer). Things that I think are plausible at 10%:
A shift in polling when the actual date is announced and people have to truly reckon with the decision
Public changes of heart from key opposition figures
Eleventh hour interventions by supprters who have been keeping their powder dry.
Any number of possible (possibly unpleasant) October surprises that change the calculus or the narrative
@JoshuaWilkes I think on top of this it's also just worth saying that I don't trust Manifold's calibration that much and if the site tells me the market value for a referendum that was previously above 50% is now at 13, I'm probably going to take those odds every day, no matter the topic.
@JoshuaWilkes It was >50% before the Liberal party formally opposed it. There has also been some other important developments (like, the confirmation that none of the mailouts will be fact-checked) which severely decrease the impact of a YES result.
Having said that, I agree in thinking that the market over-corrected.
My list, for the record, in rough order of likelihood:
1) All that stuff the Yes campaign is saying about their "ground game" and advertising war-chest turns out to be true, successfully saturating No
2) Extraordinary hit to public reputation of major No campaigners (Price, Mundine)
3) Yes campaign massively changes messaging tactics in final weeks
4) Unknown unknown
5) Major Coalition figures popular with their base defect to Yes
6) Weird polling failure
@chrisjbillington I actually don’t think it’s as unlikely as this market makes it out to be. It probably won’t pass but I think VIC/NSWwill have majority Yes. Then off that I think it’ll be 55/45 Yes/No. I think it’ll fail solely on majority of states rejecting it.
Likely to fail, Yes. At 90/10 I think the odds are pretty favourable.
@NGK Majority of every state other than TAS (due to insufficient data) has polls showing majority against. VIC is the closest to polling majority yes, but are still majority no.
@chrisjbillington This assumes nothing changes between now and the referendum. There has really been no argumentation from the Yes campaign and I would guess that they’re going to go all guns blazing on campaigning closer to the date. Again I don’t think this will pass but I think there will be a polling swing closer to the date. It’s hard to believe current polls in my eyes.
@NGK I would believe this more if the Yes campaign hadn't already said the same thing at Garma weeks ago. Then again in June when the referendum legislation passed. Then again in March when the amendment wording was finalised, etc etc etc. And conspicuously, none of these ramp-ups shifted polling.
@CU The most important detail in the polls is that most are saying they don’t know enough about it. The only real voice being heard right now (ironically) is the NO position, because it’s a really difficult concept to explain. Vaguely gesturing, “the voice means that these people will be heard”, is a lot less convincing than, “this isn’t the right way to do it”.. “it’s imperfect” .. “whatever”.
If we see polling change where people feel as though they are informed on both sides im confident it will return to initial levels of support. I went through a similar cycle myself of YES->NO->YES and I consider myself considerably more politically involved than the average person. Once you really engage with the arguments, it’s a no risk YES proposition. Even if nobody takes the voice seriously, it will give an opportunity for the represented people to build a track record of their stances on issues, which long-term will provide benefit. Even for those against it for racism-related reasons, it’s an easy sell that the voice will (again, ironically) “shut them up” for a while at no cost to the average person.
The result will of course come down to the marketing of each side. I’m putting my faith in people to spend a few minutes reading the info and evaluating pros/cons, and reach the same conclusion I have.
@Gen You may have found the evidence for YES to be strong, but this doesn't necessarily imply others will reach this conclusion in sufficient numbers for a successful referendum. Trust the trendline, and trust in history.
@Gen Unfortunately, you know what's easier yet?
Telling the exploited and downtrodden to sit down, shut the hell up, and politely quietly die.