Will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war in 2022?
resolved Jan 1

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted NO

@Nostradamnedus this market needs a description that lays out some examples of what would and would not count. At what point do you consider it "full-scale war" and at what point is it merely skirmishes?

This market stopped tracking the news I think because there has absolutely been ongoing all out war between these two countries that has escalated steadily since the beginning of November. Both sides have accused the other of firing at them everyday for well over a month. https://armenianweekly.com/2022/11/30/military-hostilities-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan-escalate/

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Also, Armenia has tried to invoke the collective defense treaty they signed with Russia and other regional allies and Russia basically ignored them. https://iwpr.net/global-voices/armenians-decry-csto-inaction

bought Ṁ100 of NO
sold Ṁ18 of YES
bought Ṁ15 of YES

if somebody is interested in predictions what will happen next:

bought Ṁ75 of YES

This is looking like it should resolve YES. Ceasefire didn't even last 12 hours. 99+ dead already 24 hours after fighting started.

predicted NO

I think we need some clarity on the resolution criteria here because the shooting has started. When does it escalate to full scale war?

predicted YES

@BTE It would have to be sustained, high-intensity fighting for over a month.