Pope Francis passed away on April 21, 2025, initiating the process to elect his successor. According to Vatican protocols, a conclave is expected to begin between 16 and 21 days after the pope's death, suggesting a start date between May 7 and May 12, 2025. This market resolves to 'Yes' if a new pope is elected before May 18, 2025, and 'No' otherwise. Resolution will be based on official Vatican announcements.
Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The deadline for the announcement is based on Indian Standard Time (IST, UTC+5:30).
The market resolves Yes if the official announcement of a new pope occurs before May 18, 2025, 00:00:00 IST.
Otherwise, the market resolves No.
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The release of white smoke from the Sistine Chapel will be considered the event determining if a new Pope has been announced for the purposes of this market. This event, signifying that a new pope has been elected, will be assessed against the market deadline of May 18, 2025, 00:00:00 IST.
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