Will I use Manifold most days in March?
91%
chance

I currently go to Manifold roughly every day (I currently have a 21 day streak). Will I still go there more than half of days in March 2023? (By my own guess, not going to keep careful track.)

I will try not to change my behavior to manipulate this market, though it is hard to police what plays a role in one's actions. (Realistically if I were avoiding Manifold for the purpose of making additional Ṁ, my obsession with Manifold might need to be such as to make this not worth the exercion of willpower.)

Nov 28, 2:07am: Will I use Manifold daily in March? → Will I use Manifold most days in March?

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charlie avatar

Wait, is the evaluation standard "daily" or "more than half of days"?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 65%

@charlie ah sorry for ambiguity. More than half of days (i.e. I meant 'daily' in the sense of 'around once a day' as distinguished from e.g. 'around once per week', rather than meaning 'literally every day')

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 65%

@KatjaGrace curious if others bet understanding this as e.g. 'literally every day'

tcheasdfjkl avatar
tcheasdfjkl
is predicting NO at 65%

@KatjaGrace I think by the time I read the description I forgot the title, so I bet based on the description, but now that it's pointed out to me, "daily" does mean "every day" for me - if you mean "more than half of days" I think it would make sense to edit the title to say that (or "most days in March").

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 65%

@tcheasdfjkl Ok, changed title.

Everyone, sorry, please tell me if my error caused you to lose Ṁ.

ManifoldDream avatar

Will I use Manifold daily in March?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition