Will I use Habitica most days in March?
10
12
190
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
NO

I currently go to Habitica roughly every day, and use it to track my todo list, as well as daily things like taking melatonin, and habits. It's not ideal, but nor has anything ever been. I am in a five person party, whose efforts to beat imaginary monsters etc are harmed if I slacken, and helped if I do todo items.

Will I still go there more than half of days in March 2023? (By my own guess, not going to keep careful track.)

I will try not to change my behavior to manipulate this market, though it is hard to police what plays a role in one's actions.

Nov 28, 2:10am: Will I use Habitica daily in March? → Will I use Habitica most days in March?

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So have you been using it?

predicted YES

@Conflux I've been using it much less, though still some. My guess is less than half of days (and I said I would guess), though annoyingly tricky to guess. (I hoped my Firefox history thing would answer, but it says I opened it on one day, which is a clear underestimate for use.)

predicted YES

(I removed the parts of it where me doing nothing could harm others, which coincided with a lot less use, and I think that was pretty early in the month)

predicted NO

@KatjaGrace Should a lack of activity on this market have been an indicator that it was going to resolve NO? Or should the market have largely stayed the same since 4 months ago

predicted YES

@Conflux Not sure. Plausibly nobody on Manifold had great information except me, and I felt weird about betting on it once it was March and I had clearer evidence. Maybe I should either have said I wasn't going to bet, or felt fine betting on the info I had.

predicted YES

@Conflux I guess my behavior wasn't a giveaway in either direction, and given that I wasn't betting, unclear that anything should be made of others' behavior.

predicted YES

I changed the title to better match the full description. (Sorry, tell me if you bet under a misapprehension and want to be recompensed.)

How long have you used it so far?

predicted YES

@WilliamEhlhardt about 40 days in current bout, I also used it years ago for longer (I forget how long, maybe six months according to this beeminder: https://www.beeminder.com/katja/habitica)

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