KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
closes Jul 1
Will excess pandemic deaths for US 15-64yos stay below 10%?

Will excess mortality for those aged 15-64 in the US remain less than 10% above pre-pandemic-based projections until the end of June, according to this graph?

Screenshot from Nov 26; the first dotted line above the solid line is 10%:

Resolution will be based on the last datapoint before the end of June, even if some of June is included in the following datapoint.

[Added: I will resolve this after Oct 1, because apparently it can take some time for this data to come in.]

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tcheasdfjkl avatar

I want to note "The reported number might not count all deaths that occurred due to incomplete coverage and delays in reporting" from the graph description; I've also seen some discussion that excess mortality data may not be very useful until a while later because it takes a while to get all the data in. I don't remember details and am not currently up for looking into this more but I want to flag that if this is true it might be a good idea to have the market resolve some number of months after the time period in question

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 39%

@tcheasdfjkl Ah good points, ok I will wait to resolve it.

ManifoldDream avatar

Will excess pandemic deaths for US 15-64yos stay below 10% now?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition