Earlier I promised Manifold I’d remember to put a poll out about whether Mamdani turned centrist one week after the NYC mayor election
But I’d appreciate some help remembering to do this!
Here’s the protocol:
To noble volunteer(s): DM me your manifold and I will text you from my phone number
Any time on Tuesday, November 11, give me a voice call (via plain old telephone) and tell me to post the poll. It must be a voice phone call, I know myself enough to know that I won’t do the thing if it’s just a text.
Multiple manifolds are free to volunteer because that would be funny
Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Phone number sharing rules:
You may share the creator's phone number with others who have Manifold accounts and whom you know well enough to vouch for their character (e.g., friendship level where you play video games together, talk on Discord, or have met IRL)
For the call to count toward resolution, the person must:
Call on Tuesday, November 11
Send a DM on Manifold stating they got the number from you and providing their calling number (e.g., "hey I got your phone number from XYZ, expect a call from +x xxx-xxx-1234")
Unknown numbers may not count toward resolution
Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Call timing window: 00:01 GMT Tuesday through 05:00 GMT Wednesday (midnight Eastern time). Daytime EST preferred.
Call attempt limits: Do not call repeatedly. Maximum three attempts in case of technical difficulties.
Call counts even if not answered: Creator will check call history to resolve. Voicemails welcome.
Phone number verification required: Callers must either:
Complete phone number exchange with creator, OR
Directly DM their phone number via Manifold
This is necessary to match unknown numbers to Manifold accounts.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,900 | |
| 2 | Ṁ343 | |
| 3 | Ṁ316 | |
| 4 | Ṁ315 | |
| 5 | Ṁ154 |
hi @traders ! Thanks for the reminders! This was a really fun experiment.
15 people expressed interest;
12 people completed phone number exchange;
👉 8 manifolders called me to remind me;
I was able to answer the phone and briefly speak with three of you.
In addition, I received five unknown calls that I wasn’t able to link to manifold accounts, but all of these were outside the deadlines
It’s reminder day eve! And 12 phone # exchanges have taken place. Just a couple defectors could stand to make a lot of money by coordinatedly “forgetting” to check in… :)
I count eleven? phone exchanges in DM so far. We’ll see how many remember. When the rubber hits the road, how many will defect or forget?
I fear that I will be so preoccupied on managing this market Tuesday that I might actually forget about the Mamdani poll…
@traders Thanks again for your help! This is getting enough interest to establish ground rules:
Call me any time at 00:01 GMT Tuesday through 05:00 GMT Wednesday (thats midnight Eastern time). I may keep my phone on silent so no worries about waking me. Daytime EST preferred.
Please don’t call repeatedly. In the case of technical difficulties, please don’t attempt to call more than thrice.
Call counts even if I don’t pick up. I will match my call history to Manifold DMs to resolve, feel free to leave a voicemail if you are brave
Do not post my phone number publicly. Only share it with people you trust IRL. Shares are subject to these same rules.
Unknown numbers will not count. Callers must either 1. complete phone number exchange with me, or 2. directly DM me their phone number via DM on Manifold, so I can match unknown numbers to manifold accounts. See the strict rules elsewhere in this thread about sharing my number with others. If you’ve ever received a DM or text from me, you’re good.
I will not share your phone number with anyone (unless you break the rules). I may choose to anonymously summarize funny voicemails or silly interactions for the enjoyment of the crowd.
Thx 4 ur attention 2 this matter etc etc -KW
@felixx Hm. On the one hand I don’t want my phone number shared suuuuuper super widely. On the other hand it would be funny as hell. So let’s compromise
You can share my phone number with others if they have manifold accounts and if you know them well enough to vouch for their character (eg you two have enough of a friendship to play video games together or talk on discord together or have met IRL)
For it to count, they should call me on Tuesday AND send me a DM on Manifold to say like “hey I got your phone number from XYZ, expect a call from +x xxx-xxx-1234.” This would let me distinguish between known and unknown numbers.
Market manipulation is funny but I don’t want to get signed up for a phone botnet, so unknown numbers completely out of the blue may not count
Two phone number exchanges have already taken place!
(Edit: Three)
@traders sorry but do note that only one outcome can be chosen! I will edit the answers to emphasize the upper bounds
@KJW_01294 I already placed a big bet on 1-2, interpreting that as "at least 1 or 2" (per precise wording — I am a mathematician and cannot default-read it any other way!). Is there a way to rectify this?
@ae Lmk how much you lost and I’m happy to refund you, then I will resolve to a single answer “as written” to be fair to traders since then
Single-choice markets are a mistake lol
@KJW_01294 I appreciate the offer! No worries, I care much more about the league standings than the mana. I if there were a way to make sure this does not demote me....
@ae the way we used to do this before independent MCs were a thing was either split the % evenly or do something like 60/30/10% to the top 3 most correct answers. we can't change a dependent market into an independent without canceling and remaking