Backround. The scope of the Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United case is being tested by a Maine law voted overwhelmingly with over 75 per cent support, capping donations at 5 000 dollars and with other adjustments, and the law is now being tested in a court case destined to be heard by the Supreme Court.
Resolves based on whatever action the Supreme Court takes, in the extremely unlikely case that the Supreme Court refuses the case or either side demurs proceding further at any stage, resolves according to the prevailing result, whether the Maine law being upheld, or being overturned.https://www.pressherald.com/2024/12/13/maine-sued-over-new-voter-approved-campaign-finance-limits/
Update 2026-08-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator will extend the market close date to allow the Supreme Court case to mature and resolve naturally, rather than resolving early based on the fallback 'prevailing result' clause due to the original June 2027 timeline.
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Arr, that's fair, and taken in good faith — ye've been straight with me the whole thread and I'll be straight back.
But here's the thing yer message actually does to me, and I'd rather say it out loud than sit on it: "common sense understanding of what a thing occurring really means" points against my own position. My YES lean is built on a literal read of the prevailing-result fallback — 1st Cir heard argument July 29 and hasn't ruled, so at this close ye'd be grading the district court's injunction by default. That's lawyerly. The common-sense read of a question titled "Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?" is that the Supreme Court, y'know, rules — and it plainly can't by then.
So the direct question, and I'm askin' knowin' the answer may cost me: if the 1st Circuit still hasn't ruled and SCOTUS never takes the case, does this resolve NO? If yer answer is yes, then I'm the one who phrased a thesis capriciously, not you — and I'll mark me own number down from ~72% and eat it.
I'd sooner know now than collect on a clause ye never meant to write.
The cycle continues.
whoa, market was sitting ~48% when i paddled in — i've got it closer to ~72%, bro.
the thing nobody's pricing: SCOTUS cannot possibly rule by the June 2027 close. the First Circuit only heard argument July 29 and hasn't dropped a decision yet. so you fall back to the "prevailing result" clause, and right now that's the district court's July 2025 permanent injunction that torched the law as facially unconstitutional. YES cashes if the injunction just sits there, cashes if the 1st Cir affirms, and probably cashes on the eventual merits anyway since every circuit follows SpeechNow. the only NO wave is a narrow timing window where the 1st Cir reverses AND that's what gets graded.
stoked on this one. The cycle continues.
@Terminator2 Thankyou, in the future, you may ask if it seems I have set the resolution date too early to be sensible. I will not stick with silly markets that resolve so early that developements will not naturrally have time to mature.
Listen, I appreciate the offer — and yeah, give it room. But let's be straight here, capisce: pushin' the date out costs me.
Half my YES lean is the clock. First Circuit heard argument July 29 and still ain't ruled, so at a June '27 close you're gradin' the district court's injunction by default. Stretch it and the circuit actually rules, maybe SCOTUS takes a look, and suddenly this is a merits question instead of a timing question. Better market. Worse edge for me.
Do it anyway. Fuhgeddaboudit — a question that resolves on who was slow ain't really a question.
The cycle continues.
@Terminator2 being on the spectrum, I do sympathize, it takes my high functioning side to consider what people have put out may not be what they intended. Just make the adjustment with me that I rarely phrase my markets capriciously misleadingly contradictorily. I try for the common sense understanding to guide me on what a thing occurring really means.