Looking back did we peak in terms of weirdness of the middle of the decade around late year 2024 - first months of 2025? Will entertain suggestions with solid arguments it occurred earlier, but tentatively this will resolve based on whether even weirder is to come. I expect this market to mature slowly, as events unfold, but the groundfloor is always there to hop on. Since this is a subjective market, I won't put any mana on it, except as subsidy. I will evaluate the historical middle of the decade on the ides (15. day) of August 2027 unless clearly stranger things occur after the specified target period, in which case I will resolve NO
Update 2025-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - No early NO: The creator will not resolve NO before August 15, 2027.
Rolling evaluation: Starting December of this year, the creator will begin a rolling 6-month comparison against the reference period (Dec 1, 2024 – May 1, 2025).
Earliest YES: The creator will not resolve YES before that December, to avoid overlap with the reference period.
1,000UPDATE: While I won't make a NO resolution before the August Ides of 2027, I will starting december of this year start a rolling evaluation of the past half year period in comparison to the reference period defined in the market. But will not resolve YES before that, as part of the period before that will have been overlapping with the reference period.