The result, assuming the Gulf Stream System (AMOC) collapses. (aspirational or the opposite this market will ever close)

150Ṁ110

2100

80%

Cold winters in Europe

66%

At least Mini Ice Age

66%

>10 Iconic species go extinct

57%

Major crop types essentially wiped out

50%

Fullblown Ice Age

12%

Population collapse of humans to <25% current

Plenty of time to narrow down resolution definitions, discussion welcome. Also, do add answers.

Update 2025-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "At least Mini Ice Age": The effect only needs to affect Europe and Scandinavia to count - it does not need to be global in scope.

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@JussiVilleHeiskanen if this only affects Europe and Scandinavia, does it count?

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