Sergio Perez before Valtteri Bottas to 20 Grand Prix points for Cadillac?

Question

20 points across seasons adding up, for Cadillac only. If both drivers contracts expire without renewal before they accrue 20 points, resolves N/A. Market will be extended season by season as needed, but will resolve immediately on 20 points.

So 20 points Perez, YES. 20 points Bottas, NO.

Update 2026-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the team is sold, the market will resolve to N/A.

Update 2026-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the team is sold but retains the name Cadillac, the market will stay live.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (2 traders, as of Aug 21, 2026).

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