This is obviously subjective, so shall not bet on my own market. Resolution up to my judgement. I've set this so even I can't add options. If there is some unimaginable reason none of the options are matching and even resolving to percentages is untenable, will resolve N/A, hope that is as impossible as I feel.

Should Reform UK not speak with a unified voice, may resolve percentages to the various views, or worst case N/A.

Resolves once Reform UK's initial take is clear and two weeks have gone without them making a U-turn or whatever.