By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?
Basic
23
2.3k
2101
91%
2100
88%
2070
86%
2050
75%
2040
63%
2035
22%
2030
12%
2027
8%
2025

This market aims to predict the year by which over 50% of living Americans will have had their full or partial DNA sequenced. For the purposes of this market, someone is considered to have had their DNA sequenced if:

* They have undergone genetic testing that provides significant insight into their genetic makeup, not limited to ancestry tests but including health-related genetic testing.

* The results are sufficient to inform health decisions, personal ancestry, or other substantial personal information.

* The determination will be based on reputable sources such as peer-reviewed studies, government reports, or major news outlets reporting on the widespread adoption of DNA sequencing among the American population.

Betting options will cover specific years (e.g., 2025, 2030, etc.), with the outcome determined by when the 50% threshold is first reported as met. For example, if this occurs in the year 2040, this year and all years greater will resolve as "YES" and all years less than that will resolve as "NO".

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In this 2019 article 25 million tested individuals are mentioned: https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/02/11/103446/more-than-26-million-people-have-taken-an-at-home-ancestry-test/amp/

It is unclear however whether those are only us-based.

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