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A lot of cards but not enough... Controversial end with 3 yellows and 1 red.

63 total in 48 matches.

Update 28/10 NZT:
Again no cards.

59 total in 47 matches (1.26/game)
- Simple equation: 16 cards required in the final match 🤣

Here's hoping that we don't see more than half the on field players disciplined tomorrow

Update 26/10 NZT:

52 yellow cards

7 red cards (nice to see this having plateaued off - hopefully 2 more games without anymore)

59 total as we await the bronze final and final.

• 46 matches played, this equates to a rate of 1.28/game (further slowing)

• This rate equates to 62 in 48 games

To resolve YES the rate of cards for the remaining 2 games needs to be 8 cards/game. That would be unprecedented and likely impossible which is somewhat reflected in the probability standing (possibly should be lower).

Looking like a strong NO coming up.

The story here is it's nice to see the card rate drop off as we've progressed through the tournament. It would be interested to look at the reasons for that:

• Teams improved discipline with higher stakes

• Refereeing directives from governing body

• Refereeing philosophy/approach to finals rugby

• Psychological impacts on referees

@JulianLees I'd expect a decline to be natural, as the better teams progress to the later stages of the tournament. (But that's just a general feeling.)

@PetrKadlec yes true good point. The discrepancy between teams will allow more pressure to be exerted and therefore disciplinary lapses to happen more often 👍

Update 15/10 NZT:

• No cards for Argentina and Wales

• 2 yellows for the All Blacks and none for Ireland

49 yellow cards

7 red cards

56 total as we await the final 2 quarterfinals.

• 42 matches played, this equates to a rate of 1.33/game (another slowing)

• This rate equates to 64 in 48 games

To resolve YES the rate of cards in the remaining games needs to be 3.33 cards/game. You'd hope this will resolve NO otherwise we're in for some controversy I presume...

Update 10/10 NZT:
47 yellow cards
7 red cards

54 total as we enter into the quartefinals.

• 40 matches played, this equates to a rate of 1.35/games (a noticeable slowing).

• This rate equates to 65 in 48 games

To resolve YES the rate of cards in the remaining games needs to be 2.75 cards/game. This seems steep although a couple of games of high intensity could potentially result in a flurry of cards.

Update 06/10 NZT:
39 yellow cards
7 red cards

46 total as we enter the last round of pool play.

• 33 matches played, this equates to a rate of 1.39/game.

• This rate equates to 67 total in 48 games

Check out these other Rugby World Cup questions closing soon:

It seems like Romania wants to turn the tide of this question! Three yellows in the first half.

@PetrKadlec wowza 3 yellows! Yes will need to do an update today.

Not a stat Romania will be wanting to dominate this much... discipline is so strongly correlated with points these days!

At this stage it is 37 cards in 27 matches.

1.4/game and this rate projects to 66 total in 48 games

The initial attempt at this question has already resolved.

Update 27/09 NZT

We are now at 30 cards in 24 matches (25 yellow and 5 red).

1.3/game and this rate equates to 60 total

Update 23/09 NZT
4 red cards
22 yellow cards
26 total in 19 matches
1.4/game, this equates to 66 total

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/stats/teams?metric=yellowcards
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/stats/teams?metric=redcards

Update 17/09 NZT

SAM v CHI - 4 yellow 😱

WAL v POR - 1 yellow, 1 red

IRE v TON - 1 yellow (still ongoing, about 8 mins left)

+13 previous

20 total in 13 matches

1.5/game, this equates to 74 total

@JoshuaWilkes only fair you get a crack at this first

@JulianLees 😃