Resolves YES if Labour underperforms the trend-line for opinion polling here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
Otherwise resolves NO
Refer to the right axis points on the 2020 Election page as an example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
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OK - this has been trickier than I wanted and possibly contentious so I've put a bit more effort into the resolution. This question "Will Labour's party vote underperform opinion polling for the 2023 NZ General Election?".
Labour's final party vote % = 26.91% (source: https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election/).
The margin is very fine between the trend-line and the election result. I don't have access to the opinion polling chart itself but I've done an overlay which visually shows that the final result plots marginally above the line (with some adjustment you could possibly argue it sits on the trendline). There is also an influence because of the degree of smoothing applied (as noted on Wikipedia).
My instinct is to resolve NO because of the following factors:
1) Visual inspection/overlay of the election result: this appears to me to show Labour marginally overperforming the smoothed trendline.
2) Even if you suggested there was an error in the overlay, I would expect the most you could claim would be that Labour performed as per the polling.
For these reasons and based on the intention of the question, I think it would be the wrong answer to say Labour underperformed relative to opinion polling - in this case (and perhaps a rare one) it seems like the polling was bang-on.
I wanted it to be more conclusive (e.g. as per 2020) but this was not the case. Given the number of YES positions, I will hold on resolving in case anyone wants to make a case that they don't think this is fair and reasonable and we can discuss. If I haven't heard anything in the next day or two I will resolve NO.
Thanks for your patience all.