Resolves YES if the All Blacks (New Zealand) defeat Los Pumas (Argentina) in their Rugby World Cup 2023 semi final.
Otherwise resolves NO
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Comment:
New Zealand are the clear favourites to defeat Argentina in their Rugby World Cup 2023 semi-final. The All Blacks have a formidable record against Los Pumas, winning 33 times and losing just twice. They are also the reigning world champions and have a star-studded team that is capable of beating anyone on their day.
Argentina are a good team, and they have improved significantly in recent years. But they will need to play at their absolute best if they want to upset New Zealand. The All Blacks have a world-class pack, and their backline is full of dangerous players. They are also very well-coached by Ian Foster.
I predict that New Zealand will win the semi-final comfortably. They will be too strong and too skilful for Argentina. But don't expect a walkover. Los Pumas will put up a good fight, and they will be determined to make it difficult for the All Blacks.
Here are some additional points you could make in your comment:
New Zealand have won their last six matches against Argentina, including a 53-3 victory in the 2022 Rugby Championship.
The All Blacks have a well-balanced team, with strengths in both the forwards and the backs.
Argentina are a physical and passionate team, but they may struggle to cope with the All Blacks' pace and skill.
The match will be played at the Stade de France in Paris, which is a neutral venue. This could give Argentina a slight advantage, but the All Blacks have a good record playing in France.
@ImanolAranzabal, while I don't disagree with your sentiment (All Blacks likely victors and your very nice summation of the team's qualities), I will note one slight correction which is that Argentina have one 1 of the last 6 matches (and 2 of the last 7 matches).
With this being said, I think your points still apply. As a fan of the ABs I hope your assessment comes to fruition 👍
We cannot ignore New Zealand's historical dominance in rugby. In addition to that, All Blacks have higher average points scored what explains their statistical advantage. We can clearly see that the odds for New Zealand are low what also indicate a higher statistical probability victory to happen. In their three previous World Cup matches, the All Blacks outscored Argentina by a total of 62-12 in the second half. Los Pumas have led the All Blacks at halftime only once in World Cup history, 13-12 in 2015.
@ZinebKaoukab I didn't know that second half discrepancy between the teams historically. I guess that could point to a number of factors related to strategy and fitness possibly. Thanks for that
Fairly stacked here for New Zealand as you would expect.
A couple of tempering thoughts for a cloudy day:
Half of the 2023 quarterfinals went against the grain of what was predicted (if we trusted Manifold Markets you may even say 3 did)
Teams which perform strongly one week commonly struggle to backup the next week (there are countless examples from world cup history to point to here)
Form guide for this rivalry (last 10 from oldest to most recent): NZL, NZL, NZL, ARG, NZL, NZL, NZL, ARG, NZL, NZL
Recent history has the teams more balanced than ever
@JulianLees yup, I think NZ is bafflingly overpriced here.
Since I've started betting on cycling, NFL and rugby markets here my belief that sports is essentially a random number generator has become much stronger. Upsets happen all the time, Argentina are a good team and NZ have a history of having a bad game at the wrong time at the world cup.
I'm probably going to lose money on this market but I bet I don't lose it 9 times out of 10