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Jump over here for my second bite at the question:
https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/will-there-be-more-than-75-yellow-a?r=SnVsaWFuTGVlcw

Will there be more than 75 yellow and red cards combined in Rugby World Cup 2023?

39% chance. Following on from my miscalibrated first question, will there be more than 75 yellow and red cards at Rugby World Cup 2023? https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/how-many-yellow-and-red-cards-will?r=SnVsaWFuTGVlcw [link preview]

At this stage it is 37 cards in 27 matches.

1.4/game and this rate projects to 66 total in 48 games

This question which was setup an order of magnitude off is now closed before pool play has even been completed.

We've hit:
30 yellow cards
7 red cards

We are now at 30 cards in 24 matches (25 yellow and 5 red).

1.3/game and this rate equates to 60 total

This means we're in the top two bands ALREADY... haha suspect this could resolve before quarters even 😄 Not my best work

@JulianLees carding rate has increased dramatically. I can't find the stat in print, but I heard on commentary that the Barrett brothers are responsible for something like 33% of all red cards in All Black history

@JoshuaWilkes wow that's a really interesting stat. Actually makes me recall wasn't Sonny Bill Williams one of the first or second All Blacks red cards of all time (against the British and Irish Lions)?

Cards have definitely become a huge piece of the modern game and perhaps they're a good metric for how hard it has been for certain teams to adapt to new rules focussed around safety measures.

I wonder what the game will look like in 5 to 10 years in this respect...

Also, given how faaaaaaar off this question range is, I've doubled it for a new question for anyone interested:

https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/will-there-be-more-than-75-yellow-a?r=SnVsaWFuTGVlcw

Will there be more than 75 yellow and red cards combined in Rugby World Cup 2023?

50% chance. Following on from my miscalibrated first question, will there be more than 75 yellow and red cards at Rugby World Cup 2023? https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/how-many-yellow-and-red-cards-will?r=SnVsaWFuTGVlcw [link preview]

Perhaps a better question is how many cards will there be in pool play for these ranges... 😅

Update 23/09 NZT
4 red cards
22 yellow cards
26 total in 19 matches
1.4/game, this equates to 66 total

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/stats/teams?metric=yellowcards
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/stats/teams?metric=redcards

Update 17/09 NZT

SAM v CHI - 4 yellow 😱

WAL v POR - 1 yellow, 1 red

IRE v TON - 1 yellow (still ongoing, about 8 mins left)

+13 previous

20 total in 13 matches

1.5/game, this equates to 74 total

Big day coming up:

SAM v CHI
WAL v POR
IRE v TON

Followed by:
SA v ROM
AUS v FIJ
ENG v JAP

Update 16/09 NZT

FRA v URU - 1 yellow
NZL v NAM - 1 red
+11 previous

13 total in 10 matches
1.3/game, this equates to 62 total

Update 11/09 NZT

ENG v ARG - 1 yellow and 1 red

JAP v CHI - 3 yellows

SA v SCO - No cards

WAL.v FIJ - 2 yellows

+4 previous

11 total in 8 matches

1.4/game, this equates to 66 total

Current counts:

NZ v FRA - 1 yellow

ITA v NAM - 1 yellow

IRE v ROU - 1 yellow

AUS v GEO - 1 yellow

(4 total, 1 per match)

ENG v ARG (still in progress) - 1 yellow and 1 red 🌶️

On current rate we're tracking for 58 total

I thought less than one a game was reasonable but perhaps I'm off from the start @JoshuaWilkes...

@JulianLees I think there has been more than one per game across all internationals this year

@JoshuaWilkes probably right now that I think of it. I don't think I've hit the middle of the road with my range but we'll leave it and see how things go 👍

@JulianLees I hope for a tournament with less cards ultimately so perhaps an aspirational setup of this question 😎

@JulianLees 😃