Background

Canada uses a first-past-the-post electoral system where the party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons typically forms the government. This system can sometimes lead to a discrepancy between the popular vote winner and the party that wins the most seats.

In recent history, this discrepancy has occurred multiple times:

• In the 2019 federal election, the Conservative Party won the popular vote (34.4%), but the Liberal Party won more seats (157 vs 121)

• In the 2021 federal election, a similar situation occurred with the Liberals winning more seats (160 vs 119) despite the Conservatives winning the popular vote (33.74%).

However, prior to 2019, this was extremely uncommon with the popular vote winner almost always matching the winner of the most seats.

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held on or before October 20, 2025. Will this repeat a third time in a row, or revert to the pre-2019 norm?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the political party that receives the highest percentage of the nationwide popular vote in the 2025 Canadian federal election also wins the most seats in the House of Commons. It will resolve to NO if the party that wins the popular vote does not win the most seats.

Any coalition or confidence agreements between parties will not affect the outcome of this market.

The market is tentatively set to end at the next scheduled election date, but will be adjusted upon an early election call to the new election date.