Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if a version of Grand Theft Auto VI is released and available to play on Thursday, November 19, 2026. The market resolves NO if the game is delayed beyond November 19, 2026, or if Rockstar announces a new release date before launch.

Background

Grand Theft Auto 6 had originally been set to release in fall 2025, but in May was pushed back to the May 2026 release date. Rockstar announced the game was delayed again to 19 November 2026, citing additional polish. The game is scheduled to be released on 19 November 2026 for the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. It's the first new entry in the series since 2013's GTA 5, and is predicted to sell more than 40 million units in its first year alone.

Considerations

In August, Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick seemed confident that Grand Theft Auto 6 wouldn't be delayed again, stating his level of conviction was "very, very high"—yet the game was delayed again in November. This is the second public delay in 2025, suggesting execution risk remains despite management confidence.