[Bounty market] What will I try next to figure out the Potato Mystery?
[Bounty market] What will I try next to figure out the Potato Mystery?
2
240Ṁ10
resolved Oct 21
100%17%
Rice + corn starch followed by (if successful) corn starch in water
83%Other

Bounty market


This market is bounty-tiered (PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT UNDER YOUR ANSWER SO I CAN TIP IT):

  • At least M$ 50 for an idea I have not yet considered that seems relevant

  • At least M$ 100 for any test and experiments I make

  • At least M$ 250 for any good ideas (and up for very good ideas)

This market resolves in equal proportion to any test that I make starting from now, on either close date or when I've found out a satisfying answer, whichever happens sooner.



Context


This market is a sister market to

The "Potato Mystery" is the effect that eating only potatoes (and apparently, raw potato starch) has on me. My goal is to find out exactly what works to have a safe-in-the-long-run supplement/diet modification to have.

I am running out of very pertinent tests to make progress, so I'm asking here for ideas. You can just leave an answer, though note that if you give some justifications for it I am likely to tip more and more likely to try it out.


Recap


You can find the update thread here: https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/bounty-market-why-do-potatoes-affec#oFPss6oQJliQtE753zTB and some personal data/tests here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Doh2gkL8JTCfP0fLycsA6sLsNk5sYvOXdUI17JBzWq4

A quick recap so far:
- Rice + starch added in sauce seems to systematically trigger the effect.

- Rice alone does not seem to work, though I have yet to cook it in the exact same way I did when it was working. Probably today.

- Maltodextrine and vitargo do not seem to work. Have to confirm for Maltodextrine.

- Sugar might be the main culprit and mechanism for inattention/directionlessness?

Close date updated to 2022-11-07 12:39 am

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy