The incursion should be into a different oblast from Kursk. It should last for at least seven days. and should involve Ukrainian forces (not Russian paramilitaries fighting for Ukraine).

I will not introduce specific area requirements; I will just say that the general tenor of reporting should be similar to the Kursk incursion, rather than previous cross-border raids.

I will not bet.

• Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

  • The creator requires reporting that supports a YES resolution.

  • If sufficient reporting is not provided, the outcome will be resolved as NO.