Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Pope, following Pope Francis, makes an official visit to China during his papacy. The visit must be publicly acknowledged by both the Vatican and Chinese authorities. If no such visit occurs during the next Pope's tenure, the market will resolve to "No."

China in this context means the "Mainland" excluding Hong Kong and Macao.

Background:

As of April 2025, Pope Francis had expressed a strong desire to visit China, highlighting his admiration for the Chinese people and culture. In a May 2024 interview, he stated, "Yes, I really want to" visit China, specifically mentioning the Marian shrine of Sheshan and expressing a wish to meet with Chinese bishops and Catholics. (cruxnow.com)

The Vatican and China have been working to improve relations, notably through a 2018 agreement on the appointment of bishops, which has been renewed multiple times. Despite these efforts, no Pope has visited China to date. The next Pope's decision to visit China will depend on various factors, including diplomatic relations, mutual agreements, and the political climate at the time.