Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if President Lai Ching-te makes at least one official visit to either Kinmen or Matsu between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2028. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the Office of the President of Taiwan or credible news reports confirming the visit occurred. A visit counts if the president physically travels to and sets foot on either island; virtual appearances or meetings with delegations from these islands do not qualify.

Background

Taiwan has controlled the Kinmen and Matsu islands, which lie just off the Chinese coast, since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taipei in 1949. Kinmen faces the Chinese cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou and at its closest is less than two kilometers away from Chinese-controlled territory. The islands retain significance as symbols of the ROC's continuing existence, public morale and confidence, with a commitment to defend them against Chinese communist authoritarianism being perceived as a test of Taiwanese political forces' commitment for democracy.

Lai made his first visit since taking office in May to the sensitive Kinmen islands in August 2024, and visited Kinmen again in October 2024 for the 75th anniversary of a victory over communist forces in the Battle of Guningtou. Lai previously served on an outlying island in Kinmen County as a platoon leader of a medical battalion during his military service.

Considerations

Presidential visits to Kinmen and Matsu carry symbolic weight in cross-strait relations. Kinmen's strategic location in the Taiwan Strait has caused numerous confrontations, making it a visible embodiment of political change on cross-strait relations. Given Lai's prior visits to Kinmen and his personal military history on the island, additional visits during his presidency through 2028 are plausible, though frequency and timing will depend on political circumstances and cross-strait tensions.