Will 'missing' reporter Minnie Chan return to Hong Kong before October 2024?
Basic
4
Ṁ449resolved Sep 30
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Given that she's now been identified as missing (although this is inevitably contested), I anticipate that her arrival from Beijing to Hong Kong will receive sufficient media attention to render resolution concerns moot. However, I will not bet in this market in order to prepare for less desirably ambiguous eventualities.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@jskf I'm just used to making these series of markets. In reflection I thin this case it would have been better to make one multimarket, but for another recent series I made (Gibraltar), I think there's genuine value in having people consider different dates somewhat separately from each other.
I think the difference is probably time frame?
Related questions
Related questions
Will 'missing' reporter Minnie Chan return to Hong Kong before 2025?
22% chance
Will Jimmy Lai be released from prison before end of 2026?
35% chance
Will any of the 'Hong Kong Eight' appear in police custody in Hong Kong before 2028?
33% chance
Will Xi Jinping visit Hong Kong by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will China have a new foreign minister by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will Hong Kong leave China before 2040?
15% chance
Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?
5% chance
Will Connie Chan (District 1 SF Supervisor) win re-election in 2024?
98% chance
Will Lai Ching-te (of the DPP party in Taiwan) still be alive by EOY 2027?
85% chance