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Firing a coach is very specific language. I cannot see how this resolves in even a partial yes.

@Cogsdoc have you seen the discussion below?

@JoshuaWilkes yes I read it all before writing.

@Cogsdoc My thinking on this is outlined pretty clearly there I think. This was a flawed market, and the blame for that falls on me as creator (especially since in the past I have made "coaches leaving their position" markets to avoid exactly this trap). I will try to be a bit more mindful about this kind of grey area in the future.

@JoshuaWilkes I’ve certainly made my own flawed markets (still have one that will be resolved in the near future). I just think the appropriate method to do so is just to go N/A. I may disagree, but I appreciate the thought put in. ….And McDermott was just fired anyway 😂

how’s that for timing

I don't think stepping down voluntarily should count as being fired? So far I haven't seen any evidence that suggests he was pressured by the Steelers to leave, but of course it's impossible to know for sure.

@jonathan the thing that is most guiding me here is that "I" know that if I had written this more carefully I would have made it clear resignations would count. This is because in many cases it would be, as you said, impossible to know for sure.

Now, markets should not be about reading the creator's minds, and words have meanings. But I think the fact that the market reaction was towards YES is pretty good ammunition for my preliminary decision here.

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-more-than-five-head-coaches-be#kfGXE2HhMbHybcaZRaHX

There is an exchange from two years ago that sets out the starting point of my thinking on this.

@JoshuaWilkes I think there's definitely a difference between "mutually parting ways" and "stepping down", though again it's impossible to tell what happened in this specific situation. Most of the market reaction towards YES seems to be people selling out of NO positions, which I think makes complete sense in an ambiguous situation. However, even though I believe N/A is the best decision here, your perspective is not unreasonable and I understand it, so I'm fine with however you choose to resolve this.

My intention is to resolve this to 75%. If I had written a description I would have made it clear that resigning would count as being fired, but I didn't so here we are.

I'm assuming "stepping down" doesn't count as a firing?

@StopPunting I exited cause I wasnt sure how it would resolve there. From the outside it feels like a firing described as a mutual stepping down to save face for a long-time coach. I'd resolve it as a firing but thats just me.

@Zeolite yeah I think you are probably right, it does seem more in the spirit of the market that he was pushed out/closer to the spirit of being fired than anything else

@StopPunting Yeah I could see it resolving either way. Didn't expect this market to be subjective but here we are.