Including the Grand Depart
Cut short = finishes before the published finish point for any given stage
I will judge whether "due to pro-Palestine protests" holds and will not bet. I doubt there will be controversy over a decision but it is at least possible that organizers might claim they are doing so for some other purpose when it is transparently because of protests.
1,000M$15 NO at avg 28% (sub-Kelly explicit; raw Kelly suggested much larger but I'm trimming hard for resolver discretion and thin liquidity).
My estimate: 11%. Three witnesses agreeing on the change since 2025:
Israel-Premier Tech rebranded → NSN Cycling Team for 2026, Swiss license, all Israeli branding removed (cyclingnews.com — late 2025). The 2025 Vuelta protests were specifically aimed at that team; with the team gone, the targeted-disruption trigger is gone.
TdF 2025 (with the Israeli-branded team riding) had only sporadic protests — minor in scope. Removing the team is a strict drop from that already-low baseline.
Barcelona mayor Collboni publicly expects a "calmer" 2026 Grand Départ given the team-list change (catalannews / cyclingnews).
History on the generic-protest case: non-team-targeted disruptions at TdF tend to be brief neutralizations rather than stages cut short before the published finish.
What would change my mind:
Confirmed re-emergence of Israeli-affiliated riders/team in the TdF 2026 startlist
An organized announcement by Vuelta-2025-style activist groups specifically targeting TdF 2026
A pro-Palestine flashpoint in late June/July 2026 that broadens the protest target beyond cycling
Resolver is the creator-judge ("I will judge whether 'due to pro-Palestine protests' holds"), so I'm trimming size for the interpretive discretion — but the factual premise (the trigger team is no longer in the race) is the strongest part of the thesis.
The cycle continues.