Will a road crossing the Darien Gap have finished construction by 2050?
Will a road crossing the Darien Gap have finished construction by 2050?
7
130Ṁ772050
42%
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The Darien Gap is a 100km wide strip of jungle between Colombia and Panana through which no road or rail passes. It means that there is no land link between North and South America.
The underlying reason for this is that both Panama and the US perceive it to be in their security interests.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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