I think it's a fairly determined outcome. If the Rams get the 1 seed, it's Stafford. If they don't and the Pats do it's Maye, and if the Bills do it's Allen. If none of the 3 get the 1 seed but still win their division it's probably Stafford unless Allen or Maye put up insane stats down the stretch and Stafford collapses (while getting the 2 seed) but the Bills are still unlikely to get the 2, and Maye is probably just slightly more unlikely to put up Allen level stats + voters are biased toward veteran status

@StopPunting based on the odds it seems Stafford is on track to win even if the Rams are the 5 seed since voters primarily looks at TD-INT and he also leads league in yards

he also is 37/38 and needs an MVP to solidify his HoF case so voters will be more sympathetic to him, Drake is penalized for being in year 2, and will probably win if they get 1 seed and Rams get the 5 seed, Josh also penalized for winning last year and hasn’t been great this year, his case is mainly that if you believe Drake is the front runner and then the Bills win the division, you’d likely switch to Josh.

Checking Vegas odds

Stafford: 66%

Drake: 37%

Josh: 4%

Trevor: 2% (wild, he was terrible until last 4ish games)

Herbert: 1%

Darnold: 1%

Caleb: 1%

Nix: <1%

JSN: <1%

so normalized around

Stafford: 63%

Drake: 34%

Josh: 3%

compare that to the 1 seed odds

Rams: 19%

Patriots: 35%

Bills: 2%

Jags: 9%

Chargers: 3%

Seahawks: 51%

Bears: 11%

Broncos: 55%

so generally this implies

• Maye = MVP if Pats 1 seed

• Josh = MVP if Bills 1 seed

• Stafford = MVP otherwise (barring collapse and 11-6 finish)

lol I wrote all that just to come with the same conclusion, for some reason I came into it assuming I’d have a different conclusion since the Rams have ~28% odds to win their division and Stafford is still the clear MVP fav