NASA's New Frontiers program is a series of medium- class missions focused on exploring the solar system through robotic exploration. Each New Frontiers mission is chosen through a competitive selection process and must be able to address a specific set of scientific objectives. The program has already produced some of NASA's most successful missions, including the New Horizons mission to Pluto, the Juno mission to Jupiter, and the OSIRIS-REx mission to study the asteroid Bennu. New Frontiers Four, as yet unlaunched, will send a large 'drone' called Dragonfly to Titan.
New Frontiers Five will be selected in the middle of this decade. Six will presumably be selected towards the end, possibly at the beginning of the 2030s. The Decadal Strategy mentions the possibility of TWO selections being made for NF6. In this case the market will resolve to both (rather than the one that is called NF6 and not NF7). I will change the market to close before an announcement date, once said date is known.
The Decadal Strategy lists eight themes that NF6 could be chosen from. I am including an additional two, which are currently listed for NF5. It is not totally obvious why they would not be included if they are not selected next time around. I think it's possible that additional themes will be added before 6 is opened for proposals. In that case I will make a new market but also leave this one open. It will resolve NA if a theme not listed here is chosen.
These are the ten themes:
Centaur Orbiter and Lander
Ceres Sample Return
Comet surface sample return
Enceladus multiple flyby
Io Observer (NF5)
Lunar Geophysical Network
Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return (NF5)
Saturn probe
Titan orbiter
Venus In Situ Explorer
Information about New Frontiers Six and the Decadal Strategy:
New Frontiers Five market here:
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/which-of-the-six-mission-themes-wil
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