I lost the game. The school I go to has this rule: if the Prime Minister of New Zealand loses the game then everyone else wins the game.
Resolves YES if in either written or spoken form, the sitting Prime Minister of New Zealand indicates that they lost the game (mind game) by the end of 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
How will I decide whether they've indicated they lost the game?
The test I will use is two-pronged:
Did they indicate that they have indeed lost "the game"?
Would it make sense for "the game" to be referring to something besides "the game (mind game)"?
One thing I want to make clear, if they say something along the lines of "you just lost the game" that would not count! For 1 to apply, the PM must "take ownership" of losing the game.
Related questions
@Gen I honestly thought that "I lost the game" was the standard way that folks lose the game, but Wikipedia does say "I just lost the game."
I very much dislike changing resolution criteria like this after market creation, but I would like to better reflect the spirit of the question. If any NO bettors feel at least somewhat wronged by the edits, I'm happy to send over Mana as compensation.
@Gen Thanks for the question! The criteria I’ve edited in are not nearly as explicit resolution criteria as I would’ve liked, alas. Do you (or the rest of y’all) have thoughts on the new criteria? Does it “better capture the spirit of the question”?
@JoshuaB I think it's more in line with the "spirit of the market", but I would also understand if people think it has changed too much. It's more of a fun bet for me anyway (I don't actually think it'll be >20% likely given the timeframe) but I'd love to see it.