Will the 118th Congress pass more resolutions than the 117th Congress (760)? | Manifold

Will the 118th Congress pass more resolutions than the 117th Congress (760)?

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12

Ṁ878

Jan 4

14%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If, at any time before the beginning of the 119th Congress, the number of passed resolutions for the 118th Congress per https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics is larger than 760, then this resolves YES. If it's smaller or the same for this whole time period, then this resolves NO.

If for whatever reason I deem that site to be inaccurate, I reserve the right to choose an alternate source (which is backed by market consensus). If no such source can be found, then this will resolve N/A.

Why I'm Asking: I've heard various pundits say that if McCarthy isn't elected on the first ballot then "the Republican majority [would be] hopelessly damaged from the start" (NYT). Well, that's happened. And one measure of how strong a majority is, is how many resolutions did it pass.

All Number of Resolutions Passed Markets:

Jan 3, 10:29pm: ~~Will the 118th Congress pass more resolutions than the 117th Congress?~~ → Will the 118th Congress pass more resolutions than the 117th Congress (760)?

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#118th Congress

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No Congress has passed more than the 117th Congress since the 111th, though the 115th was only 2 off.

Not sure how good this metric actually as a proxy for majority strength though. Seems correlated, but also with other things.

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