Which Sophia has considered extending to wait for an internal investigation to leak.
I think it is unlikely we will learn anything which would change how the market should resolve in the next six months, whether from this potential leak or from anything else.
If we do learn something that I think would have significantly changed how the market should resolution, this market will resolve yes.
I will not trade here.
Related questions
It would have to be a significant flip, like one of the options very low like Sexual Assault to Yes or one of the options very high like Ousting Board Members to No.
There are several options in the middle probability range that are all about the specific wording and Sophia's judgement, and I think there's no way to judge if those resolutions would be altered because no one knows how they'd resolve right now.
@jskf To pick a specific example, consider "Interpersonal squabbles not related to AI safety" which is at 49%.
Neither I nor the market know how Sophia would resolve this option right now, because it's all about her definition of "squabbles" and whether or not trying to get rid of Toner is related to AI safety or not. So because I don't know if this option would resolve No or Yes today, if it resolves to No or Yes in 6 months I don't know if that's a flip or not.
More examples:
If we learned that actually the whole thing about Helen Toner was totally exaggerated and not important, that's obviously a significant development.
If we learned that actually it really was all about Sam's attempt to start an AI Chip company, which was an early theory that's now at 6%, that's a significant development.
These kinds of developments would justify extending the market close date, if we thought one might occur.