With nomination basically settled, I've made a new question about him winning or not:

Note that this one asks about only felonies, not any crime.

Here is a graph of the probabilities of Trump being nominated conditional on being convicted or not, based on this market:

Huh, I've gotten a few notifications of people joining manifold to bet on this market. Did someone link to this on twitter or something?

@Joshua nate silver's substack

@Joshua It would be cool to see back links to each market.

@AndrewG Holy shit

I'm just going to keep making markets until the conditional probabilities are all explicit

Why is convcted no / nominated no so low?

@jacksonpolack He has a 5 percent chance of not being convicted at best. You don’t beat charges four times. It has probably never happened.

'Convicted No, Nominated Yes' is at 30% though

@jacksonpolack That’s stupid

Why do you count nomination as being enough delegates before the convention when you wait until the election for whether he is convicted?

He could get enough delegates and then decide to drop out. Like imagine if he gets the delegates, chooses his daughter Ivanka as his running mate, and then withdraws post convention essentially setting her up to potentially pardon him one day. The smartest move is definitely to be the VP nominee, since being VP comes with the same immunity and greater chance of being elected I imagine.

I was mainly just acting out of a general preference for resolution criteria that can wrap up a question earlier when possible. Notably in that case he would "be the nominee" for a bit, and then stop being the nominee.

I think we should have more markets like this though, and you're right that a more general criteria of "Will Trump be on the ticket on election day" could be more comprehensive.

@BTE I thought you'd have some opinions here! 😅

We've had some interesting back and forth here, very curious to hear people's reasoning!

@Joshua Given that many of the trials look set to take long, and Trump's lawyer seems to want to delay as much as possible, I just don't believe he'll be convicted before the election.

For Arb:

Note that the linked market about a conviction is "by the end of 2024", not by the 2024 election. The difference is one of almost 2 months.