Other markets currently think that it's fairly likely Trump will both be convicted and that he'll be the nominee. Do the same people think both things will happen? Let's find out!
Resolves according to reliable media reports, with Wikipedia as the arbiter of any amiguities. Edge cases: Taking a plea deal counts as conviction, conviction counts even if Trump plans to appeal, nomination is determined by getting enough delegates even if the convention hasn't happened yet.
Market close date will be moved as necessary once we know which primaries will determine the nominee and on what day any juries will reach a verdict.
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Here is a graph of the probabilities of Trump being nominated conditional on being convicted or not, based on this market:
Huh, I've gotten a few notifications of people joining manifold to bet on this market. Did someone link to this on twitter or something?
@Joshua It would be cool to see back links to each market.
@jacksonpolack He has a 5 percent chance of not being convicted at best. You donโt beat charges four times. It has probably never happened.
'Convicted No, Nominated Yes' is at 30% though
Why do you count nomination as being enough delegates before the convention when you wait until the election for whether he is convicted?
He could get enough delegates and then decide to drop out. Like imagine if he gets the delegates, chooses his daughter Ivanka as his running mate, and then withdraws post convention essentially setting her up to potentially pardon him one day. The smartest move is definitely to be the VP nominee, since being VP comes with the same immunity and greater chance of being elected I imagine.
I was mainly just acting out of a general preference for resolution criteria that can wrap up a question earlier when possible. Notably in that case he would "be the nominee" for a bit, and then stop being the nominee.
I think we should have more markets like this though, and you're right that a more general criteria of "Will Trump be on the ticket on election day" could be more comprehensive.
We've had some interesting back and forth here, very curious to hear people's reasoning!
@Joshua Given that many of the trials look set to take long, and Trump's lawyer seems to want to delay as much as possible, I just don't believe he'll be convicted before the election.
Note that the linked market about a conviction is "by the end of 2024", not by the 2024 election. The difference is one of almost 2 months.
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