Will there be a new ongoing war (1000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
Will there be a new ongoing war (1000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
56
1kṀ29kresolved Jul 13
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If an ongoing war or major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before this market close, resolves yes.
Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <1000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war and has a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024. Note that this does not count the war in Sudan, which was already on the Major War listed before this market was created.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,723 | |
| 2 | Ṁ589 | |
| 3 | Ṁ361 | |
| 4 | Ṁ172 | |
| 5 | Ṁ161 |
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
44% chance
What will the title of the Wikipedia page about the war between Israel and Hamas be at the end of November 2025?
Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?
65% chance
By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?
62% chance
Will there be more political self-immolations in 2025 as compared to 2024 as reported by Wikipedia?
21% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance
In 2026, what will Wikipedia say was the result of the October 2023 Gaza−Israel conflict
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
25% chance
What will be #1 most viewed Wikipedia article of 2025?
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
15% chance