Will there be a new ongoing war (1000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
49
232
1k
Jul 4
5%
chance

If an ongoing war or major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before this market close, resolves yes.

Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <1000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war and has a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024. Note that this does not count the war in Sudan, which was already on the Major War listed before this market was created.

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bought Ṁ5 of NO

YES holders care to explain your view? I don't see anything specific on the horizon, and the current Israel Gaza conflict doesn't qualify. The base rate is low as well.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Looks like there is one already? Unsure about wiki history

sold Ṁ48 of YES

@BenjaminShindel does the Sudan conflict count for this market?

Sudan would not count, since it was already an ongoing major war before this market was created. I have that in the major war market description, but I'll edit it into this one too.

bought Ṁ3 of YES

Israel-Hamas War could very easily do this

sold Ṁ24 of YES

@dittopoop It looks like it's ineligible, since the start date is listed as 1948 even though there have been more than 1,000 deaths in 2023 and it's listed in the table of wars now.

Major war version: