Will there be a major controversy about if an OpenAI LLM counts for a Manifold market because of its exact name in 2024?
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114
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resolved May 13
Resolved
YES

I fear that we are hurtling towards a cliff where a bunch of markets ask when GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 will release, and do not specify enough how they resolve if the successor to GPT-4 has a different name than they expected when they wrote the question.

Meanwhile, Sam Altman has said "we will release an amazing model this year, I don't know what we're going to call it" on the most recent Lex Fridman podcast.

Last year we had a market where there was massive confusion on if Gemini Pro counted as the release of Gemini:

It was a total shitshow. Will there be any similar shitshow about an OpenAI LLM in 2024? This market resolves YES if there is, and NO if there is not. It does not have to be as big a controversy as the linked market, but it can't be for a super tiny market with barely any traders and low volume.

As this is subjective, I will not trade.

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Resolving this yes because of the ongoing debate here:

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