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So NO if it's Trump Prosecutors and Hollywood strikers and Xi Jinping.

Yes if Taylor Swift, Sam Altman, Barbie, Vladimir Putin, King Charles, Jerome Powell

@Fedor Barbie is not Caucasian

@NicoDelon Good point, guess you could treat Barbie as an abstract concept. But she pretty white though

@Fedor Also depending on definitions and how you construe and carve out race and ethnicity in Russia, Putin may not be Caucasian.

Yeah Barbie doesn't count, the rest of those do.

You need to define "Caucasian".

Ie.,you mean white, right?

Maybe a simpler way to ask: What would you resolve if Bibi were selected? What you resolve if Modi were selected? Of the possible contenders, Xi is obviously not Caucasian and the rest are. Modi and Bibi are the edge cases.

I'd find it hard to differentiate between these two, so hopefully Elon Musk just wins and makes me mana and the resolution easier for you 😀

@33 I don't know if you are joking, Bibi would surely be considered Caucasian by all, and Modi considered Caucasian by no one? Their skin looks relatively less differentiated in color in the pic you posted than the ones I see online, but even in your case I... hardly think anyone would disagree with the distinction I made?

@Me37ed Modi is Caucasian actually.

"Caucasians are people of western Eurasia – Europeans, Middle Easterners, North Africans and those of the Indian subcontinent." Definition taken from Nicholas Wade’s Before the Dawn

Zelensky gonna be 2x winner. easy

"Caucasians are people of western Eurasia – Europeans, Middle Easterners, North Africans and those of the Indian subcontinent." -Nicholas Derbyshire, "Before The Dawn".
This seems like an acceptable definition to me

I think you might be underestimating the controversy of "is Netanyahu white?" (he obv is but...)

@benshindel I think the common-sense definition also says that he is.

@Joshua I agree

@benshindel I think that in the usual use of the term, Middle Easterners (whether "white" or "brown" or whatever) are Caucasian. I think that Caucasian more or less means "white by US census". Of course, there will be some controversy with Sudan, or with Afghanistan, or whatever.

The implied probability from the main market as of right now is about 40%

@Shump not sure where you're getting that number, but I think the "Other" category is not necessarily the same ratio of white as the market at large, and also it's too hard to bet down Elon, Biden, and Zelensky, who sum to like 6%

Yeah the assumption here is that the "other" category has the same proportion of whites as non-other. This assumption might be wrong, of course.

I also agree that there's basically no chance these 3 win.