In the last two seasons, the market about who would win first place in masters has itself had a significant effect on who will win first place in masters. This has lead to some controversy, and David has said he will be rethinking the rules of what markets contribute profits for leagues.
This market resolves YES if manifold policy changes to broadly not count such profits for leagues season 5. This resolves based on the implementation of such a policy and not the announcement. If the conditions are met, it resolves YES even if the policy may be later reversed.
If no such policy is implemented by the end of Season 5, resolves NO.
If the new policy is sufficiently complicated or the implementation sufficiently faulty that I'm not sure if this should resolve yes or no, this will resolve N/A at the end of Season 5.
I will not trade in this market.
1,000
3.00@Joshua What do you think about these sorts of meta markets? Are they manipulation resistant enough to be non-controversially honestly predictive? The markets are looking at cohort standard deviation after discarding "outliers".
That's an interesting question! Definitely less problematic than the markets where you can just bet yourself to victory directly.
On thing that I've thought before is that some markets should be able to count towards leagues but have a cap, so you can't get 20 thousand mana earned from one market due to a fluke. Markets like these might fit well into a category like that, IMO.