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MANIFOLD
Will I be invited to a fun private Manifold group chat in the next week?
16
Ṁ290Ṁ2.6k
resolved Jun 24
Resolved
YES

I think that several people probably have private group chats where they talk about markets on this site in good faith. I think that would be fun to participate in!

This market resolves in one week, and resolves YES if between now and then I have been invited to a group chat/channel/server/etc that meets the following criteria:

  • Fun: It has to be reasonably active with several people, participating in good faith. This criteria is not particularly strict, I am easily entertained.

  • Private: It doesn't have to be a secret society, but it should be invite-only. It can't be a discord server with a public invite link, for example.

  • About Manifold: It could also include discussion of other things but Manifold Markets should be the primary topic. A sub-channel about manifold in a larger channel could qualify, if the sub-channel itself is active.

If I have not been invited to a group that meets these criteria(in my judgement) by market close, this market resolves NO.

Additional notes:

  • I will not resolve this market early, and I will not reveal any information about what I have or haven't been invited to before market close.

  • If I am invited to a group chat, I will also not confirm or deny to the group chat whether I think it meets this market's criteria until market close.

  • I will respect any secrecy requests of groups I am invited to, which might mean I have to resolve YES without providing any evidence or by posting a screenshot with information redacted.

  • If I am invited to multiple private group chats that each agree to be counted, I will reveal how many groups that is when resolving the market.

  • A group chat that is created after this market could count if it was created for the sake of the group chat and not just to resolve this market.

  • I will not bet Yes on this market, I might bet no.

  • I can be contacted through discord at the username in my bio.

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