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Will Elon Musk physically fight Mark Zuckerberg before LK-99 is confirmed to be a room-temperature superconductor?
33
Ṁ650Ṁ2k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
N/A

Resolves as expected, referring to the relevent wikipedia pages in any cases of ambiguity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk_vs._Mark_Zuckerberg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99

Close date can be extended as necessary if both seem possible, but can also resolve early if one option is ruled out (fight is definitively cancelled, LK-99 is definitively debunked as a RTSC). If the fight is cancelled and LK-99 is debunked, this market resolves N/A.

I will not trade in this market.

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This question is very silly. I"m just going to N/A it now, as neither of these events are going to happen. If I'm wrong, I'll re-resolve.


As I understand it, there are 8 possible things that can happen:
1 - Fight happens, then LK99 confirmed - YES
2 - Fight happens, then LK99 debunked - YES
3 - LK99 debunked, then fight happens - YES
4 - LK99 confirmed, then fight happens - NO
5 - LK99 confirmed, then fight cancelled - NO
6 - Fight cancelled, then LK99 confirmed - NO
7 - Fight cancelled, then LK99 debunked
8 - LK99 debunked, then fight cancelled

The way the description phrases it makes it seem like 7 and 8 would resolve N/A, but your comment saying "if either option is ruled out the remaining option wins" makes it sound like 7 would resolve NO and 8 would resolve YES. Can you clarify?

This is good analysis, thanks for the list. 1-6 I agree are clear.

From the description the line "can also resolve early if one option is ruled out (fight is definitively cancelled, LK-99 is definitively debunked as a RTSC)" was intended primarily to show that 7 would resolve NO, rather than wait however many months or years it would take to get a 100% definitive LK-99 answer.

8 was clearly not given enough thought, and I think probably the best thing to do now would be for me to say that if LK-99 is definitively debunked first, I should wait to see if the fight happens or is cancelled to distinguish 3 (YES) from 8 (N/A).

Does that seem reasonable?

@Joshua they're all 8 working on the basis that fight is confirmed or cancelled, this is not good, the fight itself is a shitpost, which will just fade away, because they didn't agree to terms, which I guess means, there never was a fight to confirm or cancel, so #9 is n/a or...

What if LK-99 is debunked and then they fight, then they still fought before LK-99 is confirmed..

If either option is definitively ruled out before the other, the remaining option wins if it still seems possible.

@Joshua As the question is phrased it seems they actually have to fight though. If they never fight this should resolve no (or N/A at some date), imo.

That's fair, if either event was ruled out I would certainly want to wait a bit before resolving to see how things go with the other event and to make sure the ruled-out event is definitively ruled out.