TIME's list of 100 most influential people of 2024 was... unexpected. In my market /Joshua/who-will-be-the-2024-time100-most-i , not a single submitted name was actually on the list.
It seems like they were aiming to include some less obvious names this year, for example by including Chinese Premier Li Qiang but not President Xi Jinping, and by including Gavin Newsom and Greg Abbot but not Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
So my question is, will any of the 100 people they chose for this list make the shortlist for the Person of The Year?
Someone has to be specifically named to count for this market, not as part of a group. So although Jack Smith was one of the Time 100, if the shortlist only includes the general "Trump Prosecutors" group that wouldn't be enough for this market to resolve Yes. They have to be important enough to make the shortlist themselves.
Last year's list:
Market on who exactly will be on the shortlist this year:
1,000
3.00
This seems a bit low to me lol