Who will be the next US Secretary of Defense?
Who will be the next US Secretary of Defense?
80
1.4kṀ23kresolved Feb 5
100%99.0%
Pete Hegseth
0.2%
Kathleen Hicks (Current Deputy SecDef)
0.0%
Christine Wormuth (Current Secretary of the Army)
0.0%
Michèle Flournoy (Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy)
0.0%
Christopher Miller (Former Acting SecDef under Trump)
0.0%
John Bolton
0.0%
Liz Cheney
0.0%
Lindsey Graham (SC Senator)
0.1%
Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida)
0.1%
Mike Gallagher
0.2%
Michael Waltz (FL Congressman)
0.2%Other
There is speculation that the current SecDef Lloyd Austin will not hold the position for much longer.
This market resolves to the name of the next person who is appointed to the position. It does not count anyone who is only Acting SecDef. This market stays open until there is a new Secretary of Defense, even if that's under the next president.
Please include some information about any names you submit, like their current title or a link to a bio of them so we have some context.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.