Who will be the next permanent Chief Executive of the NRA?
13
1kṀ503Dec 1
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
80%Other
10%
Wayne LaPierre
8%
Andrew Arulanandam
2%
Charles Cotton
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?
Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?
Who will become the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party after Kemi Badenoch?
Will Brandon Herrera be the next ATF Director?
13% chance
Who will be the next leader of Hamas (free response)?
Who will be the leader of the National Party of Australia at the next federal election?
Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
25% chance
Who will be the next Editor in Chief of The New Yorker?
Who will be the next Conservative Prime Minister?
Will Kemi Badenoch become Prime Minister of the UK?
9% chance