How do the 4 people who say she's going to become the nominee think it will happen? Is something going to happen to Trump, or is she somehow going to get a lot more people to vote for her than current polls show?

538 discussed this and thought it was basically a toss up whether she drops out before SC.

Did I miss the bracket for staying in the race until the convention but not getting the nomination?

@FakeMoney ah, yes that should have been the penultimate bucket. Pretend that says "June 1st or later", since I can't edit poll options.

The poll results seem inconsistent with the market suggesting that there is a 35% chance that Haley drops out before SC.

Why should she stay in?

@ClubmasterTransparent

The other nominees had good reasons to drop. I don't think Haley has much to lose or better to do. I think she'll run as long as she has funding.

Why would she drop out?

• >95% she won't be nominated

• It's a lot of work

Why would she stay in?

• >0% chance she is nominated

• Publicity for future runs

• Maybe she likes it?

Hard to say, I could easily imagine her dropping out before South Carolina if her polling doesn't improve (maybe she's just staying in in hopes that things will look better for her by then), but I'll guess that the median scenario is her dropping out after losing SC by a wide margin.

She’s at her donors’ whims now. She’ll drop out when they stop paying her campaign bills.

@mattyb it's already starting