Troll Logic Megamarket: What things will "happen" by April Fool's Day? (In loving memory of Levi Finkelstein)
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Plus
62
Ṁ9451
2025
48%
Someone submits an option to this market after April Fool's Day because you forgot to close submissions
49%
This market will never close again after April 19th
85%
Every Twitter user simultaneously tweets the word "rationalussy"
71%
Partial US govermment shutdown
82%
Israel-Hamas ceasefire
23%
At market close, the total number of yes shares minus the total number of no shares in this market is expressible as the sum of two nonnegative cubes. (OEIS A004999)

Be warned! All options resolve according to the most trollishly correct argument presented in the comments! Everything in this market might be a trap! All mana bet is forfeit, no refunds!

Events must happen after the creation of this market and before market close at 9 PM PT, April 1st.

Whether something happened is decided by the person who submitted the option to the market, unless their ruling is challenged by at least two other users in which case I will then rule on the case with my own troll logic.

If my own troll logic is challenged by at least two additional users, then we will escalate even further to some form of Silly Court.

This market is intended to be in good fun, if I judge an option to not be in good fun I will N/A the option.

This market will be unranked and not count for leagues, unless one of the site staff who outrank me decides it would be funny to make it ranked.

Any of these criteria might be updated to better fit the spirit of the market.

l will not trade on this market.

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Every Twitter user simultaneously tweets the word "rationalussy"
bought Ṁ50 Every Twitter user s... YES

@Unown Twitter doesn't exist, so it's vacuously true that every member of the set of Twitter users has the property of having tweeted the word "rationalussy" at the exact same time as all twitter users.

Someone submits an option to this market after April Fool's Day because you forgot to close submissions
bought Ṁ25 Someone submits an o... NO

@ButtocksCocktoasten I don't think he forgot to do anything

so what happens now, i just sit here and wait for him to end the market? can someone explain it because it isnt clear at all how this is supposed to work

@Joshua

or can someone just write a random comment and have it resolve no? can i write a random comment to have it resolve yes?

Things are a bit chaotic today!

ty joshua

Chris you already sold your position - you bought at 500 and sold at 530?? - thumbs down on forcing a point on a longstanding market for not reading very clear criteria. don't do that.

nothing is too chaotic to take a moment to look at what you're betting on.

Elon Musk Will Explicitly Endorse Donald Trump For President
bought Ṁ500 Elon Musk Will Expli... YES

@Joshua resolves YES

Elon Musk did say he endorses Trump but not explicitly for the presidency. Twitter now has a job site, this could simply be a skills endorsement similar to LinkedIn. he may be endorsing his strength and stamina for medical recovery.

should not resolve yes.

ok haha pls tho @mods i need the mana </3

Bro it's a troll logic market, better to sell then...

there's nothing literal here that's the whole point of the market

hahahah I saw your comment without remembering which market this was and was like… hmm that seems like QUITE a stretch 😆

sold Ṁ530 Elon Musk Will Expli... YES

omg this market is dumb NA it

no one is going to NA it no one was misled, you didn't read before betting.

Troll Logic Megamarket: What things will technically happen by April Fool's Day? (In loving memory of Levi Finkelstein)

it DID TECHNICALLY HAPPEN though!!!

Elon Musk Will Explicitly Endorse Donald Trump For President

😂

Every Twitter user simultaneously tweets the word "rationalussy"
bought Ṁ10 Every Twitter user s... YES

Why has this one not resolved yes?

@ButtocksCocktoasten the creator appears to be banned😅

@Joshua Yet another victim of Manifold's censorship of rationalussy

@Joshua Not banned, but self-immolated

@PlasmaBallin that's true, but also:

(I don't remember this happening? I thought he was just deleted after immolating, but still liking markets/comments etc afterward?)

Someone submits an option to this market after April Fool's Day because you forgot to close submissions

Well that didn't happen before april fools day, so it should surely resolve NO.

@Joshua That sounds too rational for a troll logic market. You have to think rationalussy, not rationally.

@Joshua the market also didn't close at 9 PM PT, April 1st per the description, so I believe all criteria is sus here

@shankypanky well I guess I could always try again next year

@Joshua there isn't a year specified here - is this April Fool's Day 2025? 🤔 truly a loophole Levi would be proud of

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