Montreal Rats Prop Bets
18
9.5kαΉ€68k
Dec 31
37%
[Secret Joshua Market 2]
45%
At least one lesshouse floor chair is damaged
45%
Sybil joins manifold
83%
Jodie has sex before Sara2
24%
someone donates a kidney by eoy 2027
4%
Jeremy and Martine fuck
41%
[Secret Matt 2]
9%
Jodie fucks the one hot guy at church
1.3%
Jodie joins the military
50%
Sara's bisexuality ends even when serum Testosterone is non negligible
10%
[secret thing only Sybil knows]
59%
Jodie gets a job before January 1st 2026
60%
Jodie gets a dev job before January 1st 2027
91%
Someone who is a regular meetup attendee as of July 16th 2025 has their first biological or adopted child before 2030
70%
Yet Another pair of rats that haven't yet had sex, have sex (as of July 11)
1.3%
Someone is diagnosed with cancer
46%
A rat becomes monogamous / polyamorous, they were not previously
5%
Sara <= kinsey 2 eoy
8%
A rat tries meth
6%
Josh goes into nature that isn't a local park

All-purpose market for prop bets about montreal rationalists. By default, bets expire at market close (EOY) but you can add options with other end dates. Options resolve Yes if the thing happens after the option was submitted and before the end date, or No otherwise.

Options resolve N/A if ambiguous, anyone can also ask me to resolve options N/A for any reason.

Prop Bets
Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

i hate that I keep witnessing things and have major alpha, but totally forget to trade on it

@nikthink join the club lol

bought αΉ€200 YES

@Joshua resolves yes

@JoshuaTindall Good luck out west!

@Joshua Thanks! (though to clarify this secret thing was about something else)

@bayesianbot

@MarryBobinson : who counts for this?

filled a αΉ€64 YES at 80% order

like, any regular? including new regular?

if the person only briefly lived in mtl it counts?

@Luxeed ping

bought αΉ€980 YES

Beware black swans in investing

@Joshua : could this happen on ~any day? or does this have to wait after a certain date to happen (realistically) ?

@nikthink Oh good reminder, this happened!

from joshua:

New people would count but like not bringing a prexisting partner to meetups

bought αΉ€685 NO

@matthewleo @Joshua resolves NO

bought αΉ€25 NO

@spider doesn't qualify if it's taken down for a lack of notability

@spider aren't these prop bets implicitly all '... by the end of this year'

@ShimmeringDroplet I think he said in person he meant this to be by some later year, not sure which

bought αΉ€10 NO

@Joshua Let's say 2030

@Joshua works for me

i dream that ~all "secret thing" markets resolves because of the same singular event

@Joshua N/A if condition not met, to be clear

@Joshua : shouldnt this resolves "no" if it doesnt happen this year?

@nikthink I believe we said it resolves based on the first attempt, and N/A if no attempt

@Joshua : oh i thought it was on if it was attempted and not the result. my bad.

bought αΉ€75 NO

@matthewleo im downright appled that yall might profit off of Sarodie becoming honseless

bought αΉ€15 YES

@matthewleo SuperShoreCasting

@matthewleo where as you’re altruistically selling cheap insurance

People are also trading

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Termsβ€’Privacy