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MANIFOLD
Montreal Rats Prop Bets
23
แน€21kแน€190k
2027
85%
nik moves to sf in 2026-08
50%
nik's very secret market
5%
nik moves to sf in 2026-07
1%
A rat solves a millennium problem
76%
Martine reaches the UK
5%
Secret Thing Only Josh T Knows 3
16%
Asha gets married
5%
Secret Thing Only Josh T Knows 2
6%
Martine moves to the UK
53%
Asha resumes her degree this September
50%
[secret theo market, #1]
50%
Matt finishes his PhD
20%
Henri comes back to live in MTL in 2026
22%
4 or more rats go camping together
25%
2 or more rats go camping together
11%
A montreal rat has bigger boobs than Sara at midnight New Year's Eve 2026/2027
9%
Jay boob job
25%
Jodie boob job (including unboob job)
40%
Sara boob job
25%
The group finds a fidget toy we like more than the shashibo cube

All-purpose market for prop bets about montreal rationalists. By default, bets expire at market close (EOY) but you can add options with other end dates. Options resolve Yes if the thing happens after the option was submitted and before the end date, or No otherwise.

Options resolve N/A if ambiguous, anyone can also ask me to resolve options N/A for any reason.

Market context
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bought แน€450 NO

@ShimmeringDroplet are you addicted to nicotine?

@calour nope!

@Bayesian can this resolve NO

@Joshua do you mean a montreal rat?

@calour yeah that's the default for all of these

@ShimmeringDroplet should this resolve since jodie doesn't live at lesshouse anymore?

@nikthink I thought this was about moving to a different city

@Joshua that was mostly the intent but I didn't specify (even mentally I was sorta fuzzy on what this was about) so probably just N/A it

@MarryBobinsonMarryMarryBobinsoMarryBobinsonMarryMarryB @Qualia : not even me this time

@Joshua resolves yes

@Joshua this can resolve yes. Unless it was meant as more permanent, in which case the current odds are ridiculous.

I will be in Montreal the last two weekends of May btw

bought แน€10 YES

@Joshua shouldnt that resolves yes?

filled a แน€109 NO at 10% order

@Bayesian : i assume this can resolve "no" (or "yes"), after asking jeremy.

bought แน€100 YES

@ShimmeringDroplet @Joshua : jodie has moved out of lesshouse to a new home. afaik the new home is not meant to be temporary. does that count for this market?

@Joshua : you resolved that wrong. the demo and beta came out but not the kickstarter. see https://discord.com/channels/987838207267848243/1357764623318913036/1475334373338255546
(i am making mana when this resolves "yes", but i care more about accuracy of market resolving)

filled a แน€1 YES at 36% order

@MarryBobinson yall are already addicted

@MarryBobinson ๐Ÿ˜†

@Joshua no way!

@MarryBobinson ๐Ÿ˜ฎ (slight surprise)

@Joshua so sad

@Joshua : surely this resolves "yes"?

@nikthink I think we've been keeping track and so far not yet demonstrated iirc

@Joshua I think we said Martine doesn't count and there are no new other new instances

@Joshua I deferred definition to Asha tho, last time someone asked me to define a rat

@Joshua : you and eve?

@nikthink That was pre july 11

@Joshua : was the market created when this was known? i cant remember.

bought แน€20 NO

@nikthink We're waiting till marriage

๐Ÿ˜†