Montreal Rats Prop Bets
19
11kαΉ€100k
Dec 31
21%
Lex person is insane (you know it when you see it)
1%
Lex person is stalker
67%
Jeremy joins Manifold
30%
asha gets addicted to nicotine by 2026-06-01
20%
asha gets addicted to nicotine
21%
[Secret Sara market 4] (requested by third party)
14%
Sibyl gets nerve fuckiness
8%
[Secret Sara market 3]
27%
Sara fumbles the girl on lex
5%
The girl on lex is a bot or catfish
20%
Jodie moves Elsewhere by 26-08-01 with the intent to be gone for at least a year
20%
[Secret Sybil Market 2]
15%
At least one lesshouse floor chair is damaged
35%
Sybil joins manifold
83%
Jodie has sex before Sara2
11%
someone donates a kidney by eoy 2027
7%
Jeremy and Martine fuck
41%
[Secret Matt 2]
30%
Jodie fucks the one hot guy at church
3%
Jodie joins the military

All-purpose market for prop bets about montreal rationalists. By default, bets expire at market close (EOY) but you can add options with other end dates. Options resolve Yes if the thing happens after the option was submitted and before the end date, or No otherwise.

Options resolve N/A if ambiguous, anyone can also ask me to resolve options N/A for any reason.

Prop Bets
Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:
bought αΉ€5 NO

@MarryBobinson if they are insane in a way that's enjoyable to you, i assume this resolve "no"?

bought αΉ€75 YES

@MarryBobinson My house. Thursday. Mario Party.

@MLL @Joshua resolves no

i hate that I keep witnessing things and have major alpha, but totally forget to trade on it

@nikthink join the club lol

bought αΉ€200 YES

@Joshua resolves yes

@JoshuaTindall Good luck out west!

@Joshua Thanks! (though to clarify this secret thing was about something else)

@bayesianbot

@MarryBobinson : who counts for this?

filled a αΉ€64 YES at 80% order

like, any regular? including new regular?

if the person only briefly lived in mtl it counts?

@Luxeed ping

bought αΉ€980 YES

Beware black swans in investing

@Joshua : could this happen on ~any day? or does this have to wait after a certain date to happen (realistically) ?

@nikthink Oh good reminder, this happened!

from joshua:

New people would count but like not bringing a prexisting partner to meetups

bought αΉ€685 NO

@matthewleo @Joshua resolves NO

bought αΉ€25 NO

@spider doesn't qualify if it's taken down for a lack of notability

@spider aren't these prop bets implicitly all '... by the end of this year'

@ShimmeringDroplet I think he said in person he meant this to be by some later year, not sure which

bought αΉ€10 NO

@Joshua Let's say 2030

@Joshua works for me

i dream that ~all "secret thing" markets resolves because of the same singular event

@Joshua N/A if condition not met, to be clear

@Joshua : shouldnt this resolves "no" if it doesnt happen this year?

@nikthink I believe we said it resolves based on the first attempt, and N/A if no attempt

@Joshua : oh i thought it was on if it was attempted and not the result. my bad.

People are also trading

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Termsβ€’Privacy