Montreal Rats Prop Bets
22
18kแน€170k
2027
33%
The group finds a fidget toy we like more than the shashibo cube
15%
Joshua's P(Doom by 2050) is <5% at any time
28%
Joshua's P(Doom by 2050) is >50% at any time
3%
sovereign hires caroline ellison
62%
Matt does a pistol squat (as judged by Sara)
55%
4+ movie nights (planned)
30%
Evelyn gets American residency
16%
A new pair of twins attends a meetup
13%
Rat abortion
5%
Someone names their child trampoline (or trampolina)
12%
Someone gets cancer
11%
Someone changes their legal name to trampoline
11%
Someone changes their legal name to trampoline
35%
Matt <= trampoline
21%
Matt <= Kinsey 3
43%
Someone changes their legal name
14%
Someone fucks a trampoline
26%
Someone gets a pet trampoline
20%
Someone gets a pet rat (the human, no trampoline)
18%
Someone gets a pet rat (the human)

All-purpose market for prop bets about montreal rationalists. By default, bets expire at market close (EOY) but you can add options with other end dates. Options resolve Yes if the thing happens after the option was submitted and before the end date, or No otherwise.

Options resolve N/A if ambiguous, anyone can also ask me to resolve options N/A for any reason.

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@Joshua no way!

@MarryBobinson ๐Ÿ˜ฎ (slight surprise)

@Joshua so sad

@Joshua : surely this resolves "yes"?

@nikthink I think we've been keeping track and so far not yet demonstrated iirc

@Joshua I think we said Martine doesn't count and there are no new other new instances

@Joshua I deferred definition to Asha tho, last time someone asked me to define a rat

@Joshua : you and eve?

@nikthink That was pre july 11

@Joshua : was the market created when this was known? i cant remember.

bought แน€20 NO

@nikthink We're waiting till marriage

๐Ÿ˜†

bought แน€5 NO

@MarryBobinson if they are insane in a way that's enjoyable to you, i assume this resolve "no"?

bought แน€75 YES

@MarryBobinson My house. Thursday. Mario Party.

@MLL @Joshua resolves no

i hate that I keep witnessing things and have major alpha, but totally forget to trade on it

@nikthink join the club lol

bought แน€200 YES

@Joshua resolves yes

@JoshuaTindall Good luck out west!

@Joshua Thanks! (though to clarify this secret thing was about something else)

@bayesianbot

@MarryBobinson : who counts for this?

filled a แน€64 YES at 80% order

like, any regular? including new regular?

if the person only briefly lived in mtl it counts?

@Luxeed ping

bought แน€980 YES

Beware black swans in investing

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