Montreal Rats Prop Bets
17
8.2kαΉ€56k
Dec 31
71%
Jay moves to Montreal
80%
[secret thing only Sybil knows]
50%
Jodie gets a job before January 1st 2026
60%
Jodie gets a dev job before January 1st 2027
77%
Someone who is a regular meetup attendee as of July 16th 2025 has their first biological or adopted child before 2030
75%
Yet Another pair of rats that haven't yet had sex, have sex (as of July 11)
1.3%
Someone is diagnosed with cancer
80%
Someone moves away from Montreal permanently (has to be new info as of July 4th)
46%
A rat becomes monogamous / polyamorous, they were not previously
12%
10 or more Montreal rats attend Ontario Rationality Weekend
22%
Sara <= kinsey 2 eoy
8%
A rat tries meth
15%
Josh goes into nature that isn't a local park
35%
2 or more rats go camping together
1.2%
Matt and Evelyn go on an actual earnest date
39%
The montreal rats become more normal between Jun 17th and December 31st as judged by Joshua
8%
[Asha market 2]
42%
Sara's bisexuality ends before the end of the year (kinsey 5 or 6 at any point)
5%
Someone sets up a full size ball pit
30%
Getting off Testosterone makes Sara no longer interested in men

All-purpose market for prop bets about montreal rationalists. By default, bets expire at market close (EOY) but you can add options with other end dates. Options resolve Yes if the thing happens after the option was submitted and before the end date, or No otherwise.

Options resolve N/A if ambiguous, anyone can also ask me to resolve options N/A for any reason.

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@MarryBobinson : who counts for this?

filled a αΉ€64 YES at 80% order

like, any regular? including new regular?

if the person only briefly lived in mtl it counts?

@Luxeed ping

bought αΉ€980 YES

Beware black swans in investing

@Joshua : could this happen on ~any day? or does this have to wait after a certain date to happen (realistically) ?

@nikthink Oh good reminder, this happened!

from joshua:

New people would count but like not bringing a prexisting partner to meetups

bought αΉ€685 NO

@matthewleo @Joshua resolves NO

bought αΉ€25 NO

@spider doesn't qualify if it's taken down for a lack of notability

@spider aren't these prop bets implicitly all '... by the end of this year'

@ShimmeringDroplet I think he said in person he meant this to be by some later year, not sure which

bought αΉ€10 NO

@Joshua Let's say 2030

@Joshua works for me

i dream that ~all "secret thing" markets resolves because of the same singular event

@Joshua N/A if condition not met, to be clear

@Joshua : shouldnt this resolves "no" if it doesnt happen this year?

@nikthink I believe we said it resolves based on the first attempt, and N/A if no attempt

@Joshua : oh i thought it was on if it was attempted and not the result. my bad.

bought αΉ€75 NO

@matthewleo im downright appled that yall might profit off of Sarodie becoming honseless

bought αΉ€15 YES

@matthewleo SuperShoreCasting

@matthewleo where as you’re altruistically selling cheap insurance

boughtαΉ€862 YES

@MarryBobinson Based

bought αΉ€25 YES

Progesterone prescription obtained! Here's to bihacking

https://manifold.markets/nikthink/how-many-partners-will-i-acquire-be?play=true

@Joshua : did this happen?

@nikthink Not yet!

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