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MANIFOLD
Montreal Rats Prop Bets
24
Ṁ21kṀ190k
Jan 1
41%
Joshua and Evelyn move to SF by 2030
22%
A rat dyes their hair a vantablack
50%
A rat dyes their hair a vibrant color
50%
nik's very secret market
2%
A rat solves a millennium problem
47%
Martine reaches the UK
5%
Secret Thing Only Josh T Knows 3
13%
Asha gets married
5%
Secret Thing Only Josh T Knows 2
6%
Martine moves to the UK
95%
Asha resumes her degree this September
50%
[secret theo market, #1]
43%
Matt finishes his PhD
23%
Henri comes back to live in MTL in 2026
21%
4 or more rats go camping together
25%
2 or more rats go camping together
11%
A montreal rat has bigger boobs than Sara at midnight New Year's Eve 2026/2027
8%
Jay boob job
13%
Jodie boob job (including unboob job)
23%
Sara boob job

All-purpose market for prop bets about montreal rationalists. By default, bets expire at market close (EOY) but you can add options with other end dates. Options resolve Yes if the thing happens after the option was submitted and before the end date, or No otherwise.

Options resolve N/A if ambiguous, anyone can also ask me to resolve options N/A for any reason.

Market context
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bought Ṁ500 YES

@nikthink @Joshua : resolves yes

bought Ṁ200 NO

@Joshua : can resolve no

@Qualia Wanted to call this one “a vibran’t color” but that was too ambiguous.

bought Ṁ450 NO

@ShimmeringDroplet are you addicted to nicotine?

@calour nope!

@Bayesian can this resolve NO

@Joshua do you mean a montreal rat?

@calour yeah that's the default for all of these

@ShimmeringDroplet should this resolve since jodie doesn't live at lesshouse anymore?

@nikthink I thought this was about moving to a different city

@Joshua that was mostly the intent but I didn't specify (even mentally I was sorta fuzzy on what this was about) so probably just N/A it

@MarryBobinsonMarryMarryBobinsoMarryBobinsonMarryMarryB @Qualia : not even me this time

@Joshua resolves yes

@Joshua this can resolve yes. Unless it was meant as more permanent, in which case the current odds are ridiculous.

I will be in Montreal the last two weekends of May btw

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Joshua shouldnt that resolves yes?

filled a Ṁ109 NO at 10% order

@Bayesian : i assume this can resolve "no" (or "yes"), after asking jeremy.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@ShimmeringDroplet @Joshua : jodie has moved out of lesshouse to a new home. afaik the new home is not meant to be temporary. does that count for this market?

@Joshua : you resolved that wrong. the demo and beta came out but not the kickstarter. see https://discord.com/channels/987838207267848243/1357764623318913036/1475334373338255546
(i am making mana when this resolves "yes", but i care more about accuracy of market resolving)

filled a Ṁ1 YES at 36% order

@MarryBobinson yall are already addicted

@Joshua no way!