This market resolves Yes if these two markets resolve in the same direction:
/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p
/itsTomekK/will-bitcoins-price-reach-alltime-h
It resolves "No" if they resolve in opposite directions. In the case of unforeseen strangeness with the specific markets linked, I will resolve based on my own best judgement of if these two things happened or did not happen.
As of market creation, the Trump market is at 40% and the Bitcoin market is at 47%.
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I haven't tried to figure out what I think the price on this should be, but... No correlation, with underlyings at 40% and 47%, would price this at ~ 51%.
I expect this pair is weakly negatively correlated via a common causal factor: I think people are more likely to buy Bitcoin in good economic times, and draw down their savings / pull out of risky investments in bad time. And similarly, I think a good economy helps Biden over Trump. But as to how strong those effects are and whether they justify my betting this down as low as 41%... I am not sure.
@Quin fair enough, I definitely haven't spent enough time starting at charts to back that up.
@EvanDaniel Bitcoin hasnt been around long enough to prove it with charts.
But bitcoin is a bet that the market is built on a fraudulent and mismanaged currency. As inflation tears into the savings of average people, bitcoin is a life boat