If Taylor Swift's new album The Tortured Poets Department has collaborations with other artists, who will be on it?
Basic
99
44k
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
YES
Florence and the Machine
·
5mo
Resolved
YES
_Theory Base Rate: There will be at least two collabs in The Tortured Poets Department
·
5mo
Resolved
YES
Post Malone
·
5mo
Resolved
YES
Jack Antonoff / Bleachers
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Lana Del Rey
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Olivia Rodrigo
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Selena Gomez
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Ice Spice
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Nicki Minaj
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Sabrina Carpenter
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Hayley Williams
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Bon Iver
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Shawn Mendes
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Future
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Travis Kelce
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
HAIM
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Boygenius
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Zayn
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Ed Sheeran
·
5mo
Resolved
NO
Phoebe Bridgers
·
5mo

In the announcement of her new album, Taylor Swift appears to call herself "The Chairman of the Tortured Poets Department".

Many have theorized that this implies there are other members of the department, and that the album will feature a number of collaborations with other artists.

This market asks who Swift would collab with if this theory is true. Songwriting credits also count as collaboration.

You can add names to the market yourself, and you'll get trader bonuses if people trade on them. I reserve the right to N/A options for any reason.

If The Tortured Poets Department includes bonus tracks which are released within 48 hours of the album, those count.

I may make minor updates to these resolution rules in the spirit of the question, so please let me know if you have any suggestions.

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Jack Antonoff / Bleachers
bought Ṁ500 Jack Antonoff / Blea... YES

@Joshua Hopefully I read the rest of the comment thread carefully enough but "Songwriting credits also count as collaboration." and the songwriting credits are out on Apple Music (pic from wikipedia), Antonoff is featured on a bunch, this can resolve YES.

bought Ṁ20 Lana Del Rey NO

@Ziddletwix (I feel like even including songwriting credits the rest here are still wildly overvalued, assuming i'm reading it right for e.g. midnights there are only a handful that got any writing credits, but i'm not going all the way because i'm not 100% confident there aren't credits to other artists I could be missing)

@Ziddletwix Yeah I'd be surprised if we got any surprises at this point

reposted

So the remaining options in this market could be secret bonus tracks collabs, but I'd be surprised if any of the tracks not listed as a collab were secretly a collab.

So aren't a lot of options here pretty high? I don't want to buy them down myself in case there's some edge cases I should be unbiased for, though. But there can't be as many collab bonus tracks as these markets odds imply, surely?

@Joshua Would a songwriting credit count as a collaboration? I would think so and if so then the Jack Antonoff and Lana Del Rey options are pretty fairly rated.

@ZacParker Ah, yes a songwriting credit would count IMO. Good point! Sending you a tip for sharing information.

sold Ṁ31 Jack Antonoff / Blea... NO

@Joshua honestly, that changes this market so much. Taylor historically uses a lot of writers on her albums There should be an entire other array of ghostwriters and studio writers here if that’s the case.

sold Ṁ0 Phoebe Bridgers NO

@Joshua “_Theory Base Rate: There will be at least two collabs in The Tortured Poets Department”

If this was always about writing creds, why was the market framed such that this was a goal?

@mattyb I admit "collab" was a bit under defined from the start, thinking about it now. But I think it was a reasonable way for people to read the question. My bad for not thinking the criteria through more myself before Zac pointed it out, though. Happy to refund any lost mana from it.

@Joshua Also closed submissions for now since adding a bunch of ghost writers isn't really the spirit of the market imo. But if Jack or Lana collaborated with Swift to write a song but they don't perform it I think that's fair to count

Sabrina Carpenter

I don’t think she will but I LOVE sabrina

bought Ṁ10 Phoebe Bridgers YES

If Boygenius is resolved yes, Phoebe Bridgers would also resolve yes, right? Or does she have to have a solo feature?

@OwenHenahan hmmm, @june what was your intention submitting it?

@OwenHenahan let’s say boygenius counts as phoebe as long as she’s part of the feature?

sold Ṁ11 Phoebe Bridgers YES

@june Sounds fair to me!

bought Ṁ10 Ed Sheeran NO

Welp

bought Ṁ100 Ed Sheeran NO
bought Ṁ100 Shawn Mendes NO

@mattyb @Joshua does this resolve day of?

@mattyb Well there could be bonus tracks, but I guess I can resolve Post Malone and the general theory to Yes now.

@Joshua Although as @Conflux predicted, this seems to just barely pass the bar I set 😅

I had the idea that poets could be featured and now reallyyyyy like this idea as a boost to poetry (though I don't think it's likely)

@june Ocean would be a nice plot twist if modern writers appear. (Pls not Rupi Kaur)

Sabrina Carpenter

A Sabrina + Olivia song to settle the beef

Hmm, I’m not sure this is really conditioning on the right thing. Lots of Taylor’s albums have two collab artists but wouldn’t be considered collab albums.

evermore had collabs with HAIM, The National, and Bon Iver. Lover had collabs with the Dixie Chicks and Brendon Urie. reputation had a collab with Ed Sheeran and Future.

folklore (Bon Iver) and Midnights (Lana Del Rey) also almost qualify - the latter does if you include the Til Dawn track with Ice Spice. I’m not even talking about the re-recordings, but those also (mostly) have plenty of collabs.

The upshot: Right now, traders have to price in the possibility of a two-collab album (where most of the markets are overpriced) as well as one more like Ed Sheeran’s No. 6 Collaborations Project. What you do with this market is sort of up to you.

@Conflux Ah, perhaps I should have set the bar higher but I'll leave it as is. Having the N/A condition be unlikely probably makes the market more accurate

@Joshua Hmm, sure

@Conflux lol right now the percentages add up to like 450%, so the market predicts 4+ collabs from just people in this list. I guess could be reasonable if you think there’s an off chance of every song being a collab?